Spend to the floor
The question
How much of the $34.0M gap to the owners' proposed floor do we spend before the CBA expires, and on whom?
Recommendation
Confidence MediumDon't sign the list before Dec 1 at today's prices. Under today's rules none of it clears the market price of a win (0.81 wins per $10M against 1.11), and the three would cost $38.2M a year, $4.1M over the gap. No other use the plan measures clears it either: the best use not already in the plan, Jack Flaherty, mid-tier starter, buys 0.98 wins per $10M. If the new CBA sets the owners' floor, spend the $34.0M gap on short deals then: on their terms Jake Bauers, Jack Flaherty and Alex Vesia cost $33.6M a year and the whole list adds +3.1 wins, taking the plan from 81.7 to 84.8 wins and 56% playoff odds.
Decided together with “Qualifying offer: Brandon Lowe” and “Mitch Keller: keep, trade, or add a starter”; all read the same Winter Plan.
A clear lean on price: at today's prices the same money buys 1.1 more wins at the market rate than the list does, beyond the 0.2-win line. Waiting risks little: the Board's next lists add about the same. The floor itself is a proposal, and the owners'-terms prices are Keystone's assumption.
Evidence
- The gap: the plan's 2027 payroll is $137.2M on the owners' terms (luxury-tax basis, benefits included) against their proposed $171.2M floor, $34.0M short. Under today's rules there is no floor; the same payroll is $138.6M.
- The Free-Agent Board's list to the floor, at the owners'-terms prices (deals of 2 years or less while the CBA is unsettled): Jake Bauers (DH starter; 2 yr × $15.6M, +1.8 wins); Jack Flaherty (rotation depth: all starts; 2 yr × $9.5M, +1.0 wins); Alex Vesia (bullpen; 1 yr × $8.5M, +0.4 wins). Together +3.1 wins for $33.6M a year ($58.7M committed); plan plus list: 84.8 wins (80% range 73–97), 56% playoff odds.
- Signed before the CBA expires (Dec 1), a deal is signed at today's prices: the same three cost $38.2M a year (Jake Bauers $17.7M, Jack Flaherty $10.8M, Alex Vesia $9.7M), $4.1M over the gap. The owners'-terms prices assume prices fall 12% under their proposal (Keystone's assumption, not data).
- Under today's rules there is no floor, so a signing has to beat the market price of a win ($9.0M, 1.11 wins per $10M of 2027 payroll). At today's prices the list buys 0.81; each signing alone, on the plan: Jake Bauers 0.99, Jack Flaherty 0.91, Alex Vesia 0.63. No signing on the list clears it alone.
- The plan's 40-man is at 40 when the Rule 5 protections are filed (Nov 17), with Henry Davis released before it: each signing needs a cut (Noah Murdock and Lake Bachar, in that order), made before the Rule 5 filing if he signs before it.
- Beyond the list, the plan measures other uses of the money (2027 wins per $10M of payroll on this roster, one-off talent costs included, so the re-sign counts the pick he would cost): Jack Flaherty, mid-tier starter 0.98; Isaac Paredes by trade 0.90; Jazz Chisholm Jr., third base instead of the trade 0.68; Lowe on the qualifying offer 0.57; Lowe re-signed 0.46; the Board's floor list 0.92 at the owners'-terms prices, 0.81 at today's. At the plan's projection a win is worth about 4.0 points of playoff odds (the steep part of the curve), the same for every use, so the odds rank them as wins per $10M does: the list takes the plan from 44% to 56% playoff odds. Isaac Paredes by trade misses the market rate too; the third-base memo weighs it on what else gets the wins: the next option at third adds 1.0 fewer, while the Board's next lists add about what this one does, so the list can wait.
Options considered
| Option | Upside | Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Wait for the CBARecommended | Prices and rules known; no deal that misses the market rate | A lockout from Dec 2 freezes signings, and the players can sign elsewhere first; the Board's next lists add about the same (+3.1 wins, +3.0 wins) |
| Sign the floor list now, at today's prices | +3.1 wins; nothing past 2028 | $38.2M a year ($4.1M over the gap); 0.81 wins per $10M against the market's 1.11; two 40-man cuts, made before the Rule 5 filing |
| Under today's rules: back to 2026 payroll | +0.6 wins for $6.3M | 2.5 fewer wins than the floor list |
Risks
- The floor is the owners' proposal, not a rule; nothing has been agreed.
- A lockout from Dec 2 could run into spring (the 2021–22 lockout ended in March; CBA knowledge, not in our data).
What would change our mind
If the new CBA sets the floor, finish the list (or the Board's next one) before spring; if it drops the floor, spend only where a win costs less than the market. If a listed player's price falls below $9.0M a win before Dec 1, sign him.