Roster & payroll / Contract Studio

What is a player worth, and what should we pay?

Surplus value is what a player’s projected WAR would cost on the open market, minus what we will pay him, discounted to today. Change any assumption below and every number on this page recomputes instantly.

For general manager, assistant GMs Model card Contracts as of Oct 21, 2026 · projections through 2034

CBA scenario

$ per WAR (2027)$9.00M

Market growth / yr4.0%

Discount rate8%

2027 payroll, one basis $138.6M After the Winter Plan · $126.7M as it stands · current rules

Gap to the proposed $171.2M floor $34.0M After the plan · $46.1M as it stands · binding only if the owners’ proposal passes

Surplus value of controlled roster $599.3M Present value, all control years · incl. 16 with control estimated from the MLB debut

$ per WAR, checked against the market $8.1M–$11.1M Last winter’s free-agent AAV per projected win (143 deals); this page uses $9.00M

Decisions on the clock

Each card follows the Winter Plan; the numbers recompute with the assumptions above.

Offer ≈ Nov 1–5 · his answer ≈ Nov 11–15

Qualifying offer: Brandon Lowe

$8.6M compensation pick if he declines, net of its bonus

Extend it unless he is at least 58% likely to accept. A decline returns the pick. If he accepts, the plan’s roster gains +1.8 wins ($16.0M) for $22.4M more payroll: −$6.4M. On his own a year of him is worth $22.6M against the $23.15M offer; in the plan he takes second base and Gonzales goes to the bench, so he adds less than that. The plan puts his odds of declining at 86% (12 of 14 comparable deals cleared the offer last winter): extend the offer. Extending pays if he declines with probability above 42% under today’s rules; on the owners’ terms above 48% at face value and at any odds if floor money is free.

If he	WinsPlayoff odds	PayrollFloor gap	40-man	2B / 3B
declines	81.744%	$138.6M$34.0M	39	Nick Gonzales / Isaac Paredes
accepts	83.551%	$160.9M$11.9M	40	Brandon Lowe / Isaac Paredes

Payroll under current rules, one basis; the floor gap is on the owners’ terms either way, and the 40-man is the plan’s count once the winter’s moves land. Order: offer ≈ Nov 1–5 → his answer ≈ Nov 11–15 → release Henry Davis → if he accepts, Acquire Isaac Paredes → Rule 5 filing Nov 17 → non-tender deadline Nov 20; the trade to acquire Isaac Paredes (HOU) for Jacob Gonzalez (FV 35+) + Jhostynxon Garcia (FV 45) can close any time between Nov 1 and Dec 1. Re-signing him after a decline gives up the pick: walk away above $13.5M a year for 3 years (owners’ proposal: $11.5M–$46.6M, as floor money costs face value or nothing). Brief →

By Nov 17 · before the Rule 5 filing (non-tender deadline Nov 20)

Non-tender

Henry Davis $139K of value in his 2027 role (third catcher) vs. $1.5M salary

Shop him; if nothing comes, release him before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17). At full-season playing time he’d be worth $1.5M; the plan has no such role for him, and later arbitration years add $618K. Frees $734K in 2027 (one basis, current rules) and a 40-man spot.

Closest to the line among the rest: Yohan Ramírez ($3.3M over his salary), Jared Triolo ($4.8M over his salary).

Brief →

Before Dec 1 · a lockout freezes trades

Keep or trade: Mitch Keller

Keep the Winter Plan’s call

$38.8M owed for 2 seasons; surplus −$15.5M (PV) at these assumptions. Trading him with half his money retained costs 0.7 wins in 2027 (44% → 41% playoff odds). Ended 2026 on the 60-day IL (Right arm teres major muscle injury). The plan assumes he is ready for spring; that is a medical call we can't see.

On money at these assumptions: the wins he would take with him are worth $10.9M net of the pitcher who replaces him (2027 from the plan’s engine: 0.68 wins, 50% of his 1.35 projected WAR; 2028 at the same 50% of his 1.11, since the plan models 2027 only) to $21.8M gross (his projection of 1.35 and 1.11 WAR, as if a replacement-level arm took his innings). Over 2027–28, in present value, the trade saves $13.3M of payroll on the luxury-tax basis (half his luxury-tax hit, less the minimum-salary fill; $6.9M of it in 2027 on current rules, the saving the brief and the Winter Plan quote) and $17.1M in cash (half his salary, less the fill). Toss-up on money: trade net of his replacement; keep at his own projection. Where the money says trade, it runs against the plan’s call to keep him, which rests on his medicals: a club gains from these terms only if he is healthy.

Brief →

Extension: Paul Skenes

A staged decision: diagnose the velocity drop first, then decide before the CBA expires

Decide by Dec 1 · The CBA expires Dec 1; a lockout is expected Dec 2 and freezes transactions and talks with 40-man players.

No reliable deal zone 5 years: comparable deals price him at $22.3M a year vs. our walk-away of $22.6M (+$944K PV vs. year to year, under the $1M bar); a $219K gap is inside the price model’s typical $3.7M miss, so it’s within noise.

1. Medical and biomechanics review of the four-seam velocity drop and the arm-angle change By mid-November. Keystone has no medical or biomechanics data, so this step is the club's (see Data: blocked analyses). Data-blocked →
2. If the cause is benign: offer up to the walk-away at 5 years before the CBA expires By Dec 1. A lockout from Dec 2 freezes talks; a new CBA can change every input here.
3. If the cause is unexplained: go year to year and reopen if his four-seamer averages 97.5 mph or more By May 2027. Arbitration keeps him through 2029 either way.

Why diagnose first: his four-seamer averaged 98.8 (2024) → 98.2 (2025) → 96.8 (2026) mph and his arm angle moved 24.5° → 24.3° → 26.6°. The projection doesn’t see velocity, and a 5% haircut, the most the evidence supports, moves the best length to 4 years at −$1.7M (no zone). His projection (4.83 WAR) is above every starter the price model learned from (highest 4.79), so his price is an extrapolation.

Walk-away range (5 yrs, current rules)$19.6M–$25.6M

One input at a time across its span, the rest at Contract Studio’s defaults on current rules: walk-away at the low / high end.

$ per WAR $8.1M–$11.1M $21.2M / $25.6M
Discount rate 6%–10% $22.9M / $22.3M
Attrition a year 5%–15% $25.3M / $20.2M
Velocity haircut 0%–5% $22.6M / $21.7M
Arbitration salaries ± typical miss $20.4M / $24.8M
Innings 144–176 IP $19.6M / $22.6M

The Winter Plan gives him 144 IP in 2027 (3.97 WAR) against his own projection’s 176 (4.83 WAR). At the plan’s level every season his walk-away is $19.6M, the low end of the range; $22.1M if only 2027 is cut.

Market price, 80% range (5 yrs)$13.8M–$33.3M

Owners’ proposal (prices × 0.88, at the defaults) floor money at face value: +$831K at 5 yrs (no zone) · free: +$21.2M at 6 yrs (a zone): a toss-up

Owners’ terms priced against the Winter Plan's payroll without him (luxury-tax basis).

2027 luxury-tax payroll +$15.4M on current rules ($22.3M AAV in place of $7.0M arbitration); +$13.5M on the owners’ terms (prices × 0.88), so the plan’s floor gap goes $34.0M → $20.5M

Without him in 2027 −3.5 wins: 81.7 → 78.2, playoff odds 44% → 31% (Carmen Mlodzinski starts)

With club options (2027–29 guaranteed, 2030–31 options at $22.3M) walk-away ≤ $26.4M a year on the guaranteed years, against $14.9M for a plain 3-year deal (market $16.3M)

Options at the plain 5-year deal's market AAV ($22.3M), no buyout: the club pays those years only if he is still healthy, which is worth $10.5M over guaranteeing them at the same price (10% a year attrition read as the chance he is lost). What he would accept for this structure is unknown: no comparable deals with club options are in the data.

What the medical review is worth (P(benign) 25% / 50% / 75%) $236K / $472K / $660K

Extending at 5 years only on a benign finding gains +$944K; with a 5% velocity haircut the same deal loses $2.6M. Keystone has no estimate of P(benign), so the band is stated, not measured; a cause worse than the haircut makes the review worth more.

Not modelled: a qualifying offer or a trade in his last control year (2029): either would add value to going year to year, so the status quo would rise and the walk-away fall; Keystone doesn't price them.

At the default assumptions, 10% a year attrition on his value and his arbitration raises alike. · Brief →

Controlled roster · surplus value

Present value over each player’s remaining control years. Click a row to model it.

Pre-arbArbGuaranteedClub optionPlayer / mutual

Player	Age (2027)	2027 $	2027 WAR	Surplus value (PV)	StatusControl
P	27	$780K	3.0	$94.3M	Pre-arb
P	25	$7.0M	4.8	$87.7M	Arbitration
P	24	$780K	2.2	$83.1M	Pre-arb
RF	23	$780K	1.6	$73.7M	Pre-arb
SS	21	$3.3M	1.7	$56.8M	Guaranteed
P	25	$3.1M	2.4	$46.4M	Arbitration
C	26	$780K	1.4	$43.0M	Pre-arb
P	27	$780K	1.2	$28.1M	Pre-arb
P	24	$780K	0.6	$25.1M	Pre-arb (est.)
CF	28	$7.7M	2.3	$18.6M	Arbitration
P	28	$3.1M	1.3	$18.2M	Arbitration
3B → 2B	28	$3.1M	1.5	$17.9M	Arbitration
C	27	$1.7M	0.7	$9.7M	Arbitration
CF	31	$780K	0.9	$9.3M	Pre-arb
P	25	$780K	0.3	$9.1M	Pre-arb (est.)
1B → DH	29	$1.8M	0.9	$9.1M	Arbitration
SS	26	$780K	0.4	$8.0M	Pre-arb (est.)
SS	25	$780K	0.3	$6.3M	Pre-arb (est.)
P	23	$780K	0.1	$5.9M	Pre-arb (est.)
P	32	$2.4M	0.6	$4.4M	Arbitration
P	30	$780K	0.4	$3.9M	Pre-arb (est.)
SS	29	$1.9M	0.6	$3.4M	Arbitration
P	29	$780K	0.3	$2.0M	Pre-arb (est.)
P	31	$1.9M	0.4	$1.5M	Arbitration (est.)
P	32	$780K	0.2	$1.1M	Pre-arb
P	28	$780K	0.2	$919K	Pre-arb (est.)
3B	25	$780K	0.1	$705K	Pre-arb (est.)
CF	28	$780K	0.1	$300K	Pre-arb (est.)
C	27	$1.5M	0.2	$16K	Arbitration
RF	27	$780K	−0.3	$0	Pre-arb (est.)
P	26	$780K	0.0	$0	Pre-arb (est.)
LF	27	$780K	0.0	$0	Pre-arb (est.)
RF	24	$780K	−0.3	$0	Pre-arb (est.)
P	25	$780K	0.0	$0	Pre-arb (est.)
P	33	$12.5M	0.7	−$6.2M	Guaranteed
RF → 1B	33	$15.0M	1.0	−$6.3M	Guaranteed
P	31	$18.4M	1.4	−$15.5M	Guaranteed
LF	32	$15.3M	1.2	−$41.2M	Guaranteed

(est.): on the 40-man with no RosterResource contract row, so control and salaries are estimated from his MLB debut: the least control the debut allows (time in the minors adds seasons), pre-arbitration years at the minimum and arbitration years from Keystone’s arbitration model (in 2027: Isaac Mattson). The payroll above counts them in the minimum-salary fill, since RosterResource lists no salary for them, and the Winter Plan’s tender calls don’t cover them.

Paul Skenes · season by season

Bars: projected value. Ticks: salary.

2027 Arbitration 4.8 WAR $7.0M $36.5M

2028 Arbitration 5.0 WAR $14.0M $33.1M

2029 Arbitration 5.1 WAR $26.0M $24.0M

Winter Plan 2027: 3.97 WAR as rotation (144 IP). This page values his own projected playing time (4.83 WAR in 176 IP) at the same rate (4.95 per 180 IP); the plan hands out one season of team playing time, so the two differ by his share of it.

Extension calculator

Replace remaining control with a guaranteed deal starting 2027.

Term5 yrs · 2027–2031

Injury / decline attrition per year10%

Offer AAV$22.50M

Our walk-away (max AAV that beats the status quo) $22.56M

Comparable deals at 5 yrs $22.34M

Extension surplus at 10% attrition (PV) $76.2M

Status quo surplus at 10% attrition (PV) $75.9M

Market break-even AAV $40.17M

Term 5 yrs

Adds $268K versus going year to year

Our walk-away is what going year to year pays him in expectation ($22.56M a year: his salaries while the club controls him, then the market value of his projected WAR), so the club gains only what he gives up for the security of a guaranteed deal. Comparable players at this length signed for $22.3M, 1% below that expectation. His arbitration raises follow the attrition above.

Extension candidates

Every controlled player projected for 0.5+ WAR in 2027. For each, the deal length where the market price (what comparable players signed for) sits furthest below our walk-away.

Player	Age (2027)	2027 WAR	Control	Best length	Market AAV (80% range)	Our max AAV	Gain (PV, all years)	Call
Oneil Cruz CF	28	2.3	thru 2028	3 yrs 2027–2029	$9.3M $6M–$14M	$11.8M	+$7.0M	Lean: buy 1 free-agent year (within noise)
Carmen Mlodzinski P	28	1.3	thru 2029	3 yrs 2027–2029	$3.8M $2M–$6M	$4.8M	+$2.7M	Diagnose first: four-seamer −1.0 mph vs. 2025
Paul Skenes P	25	4.8*	thru 2029	5 yrs 2027–2031	$22.3M $14M–$33M	$22.6M	+$944K	Diagnose first: four-seamer −1.4 mph vs. 2025
Mason Montgomery P	27	1.2	thru 2030	4 yrs 2027–2030	$3.8M $2M–$6M	$3.5M	−$903K	Go year to year
Yohan Ramírez P	32	0.6	thru 2028	2 yrs 2027–2028	$3.2M $2M–$5M	$2.5M	−$1.4M	Go year to year
Nick Gonzales 3B → 2B	28	1.5	thru 2029	3 yrs 2027–2029	$5.8M $4M–$9M	$5.1M	−$2.0M	Go year to year
Jared Jones P	25	2.4	thru 2029	4 yrs 2027–2030	$10.4M $6M–$15M	$9.2M	−$4.3M	Go year to year
Endy Rodríguez C	27	0.7	thru 2029	3 yrs 2027–2029	$4.8M $3M–$7M	$2.5M	−$6.4M	Go year to year
Jared Triolo SS	29	0.6	thru 2029	3 yrs 2027–2029	$4.6M $3M–$7M	$1.6M	−$8.3M	Go year to year
Esmerlyn Valdez RF	23	1.6	thru 2032	7 yrs 2027–2033	$6.8M $4M–$10M	$4.9M	−$10.8M	Go year to year
Spencer Horwitz 1B → DH	29	0.9	thru 2030	4 yrs 2027–2030	$5.1M $3M–$8M	$2.0M	−$10.8M	Go year to year
Bubba Chandler P	24	2.2	thru 2031	6 yrs 2027–2032	$9.3M $6M–$14M	$6.5M	−$14.3M	Go year to year
Jake Mangum CF	31	0.9	thru 2030	4 yrs 2027–2030	$5.0M $3M–$7M	$798K	−$15.2M	Go year to year
Rafael Flores Jr. C	26	1.4	thru 2032	6 yrs 2027–2032	$5.6M $3M–$8M	$2.5M	−$15.6M	Go year to year
Braxton Ashcraft P	27	3.0	thru 2031	5 yrs 2027–2031	$10.1M $6M–$15M	$5.8M	−$18.7M	Go year to year

Market price: a model fit on 84 extensions signed 2021–26 (miss $3.7M a year vs. $8.8M for $9M per WAR): clubs buy control years cheaply (a 2-WAR hitter’s go for about $6.7M) and free-agent years near market ($14.8M). A floor at the richest comparable deal was tested and dropped: it made held-out prices worse ($5.3M typical miss). A zone needs a gain above $1M; “within noise” means the gap between the price and our walk-away is under the model’s typical miss, so such a zone is shown as a lean (no highlight): a toss-up, not a recommendation. Walk-away and gain use the assumptions above with 5% (hitters) / 10% (pitchers) yearly attrition on value and arbitration raises alike; a starter whose four-seamer fell a mile an hour or more since 2025 is a diagnose-first call. * Projected above every deal in the training set (an extrapolation). It’s what comparable players accepted, not what this player will: stars can hold out for more.

Payroll trajectory vs. proposed floor

Luxury-tax basis: guaranteed deals, Keystone’s arbitration estimates, the 26-man’s minimum fill, benefits and other items. Current rules.

$127M

2027

$139M

2028

$146M

2029

GuaranteedArbitrationMinimum fillBenefits & other Winter PlanProposed floor $171.2M

Season	As it stands current · owners	Winter Plan current · owners	Gap to floor owners’ terms
2027	$126.7M · $125.1M	$138.6M · $137.2M	$34.0M
2028	$138.9M · $133.5M	$138.1M · $133.2M	$38.0M
2029	$145.9M · $138.4M	$145.2M · $138.0M	$33.2M

Under the owners' proposal Pittsburgh would sit $34.0M below it in 2027, $38.0M below it in 2028, $33.2M below it in 2029 after the Winter Plan. Arbitration raises add $50.9M from 2027 to 2029 on this roster, so payroll doesn't fall off after 2027; any gap that remains would take new money. RosterResource’s 2027 estimate ($113.5M) leaves out pre-arbitration salaries and uses its own arbitration figures ($28.7M in 2027), so it runs lower.

Scenario: Current rules (CBA through Dec 1, 2026)

No salary floor or cap; luxury-tax thresholds apply to the top spenders only.
Revenue sharing continues; the qualifying offer is $23.15M for 2026-27.
Minimum salary $780K in 2027 (today’s), +3% a year after: an assumption, since no agreement sets 2027 yet.

Arbitration model check vs. published projections

2027	Keystone	Published
Paul Skenes	$7.0M	$7.2M
Oneil Cruz	$7.7M	$6.3M
Nick Gonzales	$3.1M	$3.1M
Spencer Horwitz	$1.8M	$2.5M
Jared Jones	$3.1M	$2.1M
Jared Triolo	$1.9M	$1.8M
Carmen Mlodzinski	$3.1M	$1.6M
Yohan Ramírez	$2.4M	$1.5M
Henry Davis	$1.5M	$1.4M
Endy Rodríguez	$1.7M	$1.2M

Published: Pittsburgh Baseball Now, 2027 arbitration projections (as of Oct 20, 2026); their $28.7M total matches RosterResource’s 2027 arbitration total in our data. Mean absolute gap $643K; Keystone is higher for 8 of 10 (on average +$465K). Largest gaps: Carmen Mlodzinski (+$1.47M), Oneil Cruz (+$1.43M), Jared Jones (+$1.05M). Payroll and every walk-away here use Keystone’s figures; the published ones are a check.