Player development / Prospect Pipeline
Player development / Prospect Pipeline

Who is ready, who is stalling, and who must we protect?

Every Pittsburgh minor leaguer, measured against his league and his age. Perf+ scores OPS+ (hitters) or K−BB% (pitchers) against his own league first (the PCL and the Cal League inflate offense), takes out 33% of his home park’s estimated lift (the share a test on hitters who changed parks supports), then puts it on one scale for the level, with 100 as average, over his whole season. Age vs. level shows how young he is for it. A season says less than it looks: only about 34% of a hitter’s distance from 100 carries into the next after a median season (351 PA), 43% after a full 500 PA, so each player also gets an expected Perf+. The urgent call is the Rule 5 filing on Nov 17; promotions are a spring call. Triple-A and Florida State League pitches are tracked (MiLB Stuff); everywhere else these are box-score signals, labeled as such.
For farm director, international scouting Model card 2026 minor-league season · MLB Stats API, FanGraphs FV, Savant AAA and FSL tracking · organization as of Oct 21, 2026
Rule 5 eligible, off the 40-man 54 33 at AA or AAA · protection due Nov 17
Ready to push 9 Perf+ ≥ 110 over the season, no more than half a year older than the level’s average · development prospects · 1 on an injured list · left out: 1 another club’s line
Stalling 5 Perf+ < 92, half a year or more older than the level’s average · development prospects · 22 org-depth players apart
Youngest producer for his level Seth Hernandez −3.2 yrs vs. his levels (A, A+) · Perf+ 123

Rule 5 protection · due Nov 17

The Winter Plan’s call on every eligible player it ranks: protected, then the most likely to be taken. Pick risk is ordered, not calibrated.

40-man at the filing 40 of 40 full with the plan’s 3 protections · only after the plan’s early move: release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17)
One more protection would cut Noah Murdock the plan’s lowest long-term value on the 40-man (0.06 wins). If Brandon Lowe accepts the qualifying offer, also: acquire Isaac Paredes before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17)
Eligible 54 33 at AA/AAA · 15 likely minor-league free agents apart · eligibility unknown (not in the 54): Jhonny Severino, Jeter Martinez
PlayerPosLvlPerf+StuffFVPick riskExp. lossPlan
Termarr JohnsonIL2BAAA91—450.530.85Protect
Derek DiamondSIRPAAA11296 AAA/A · 725 p400.460.18Protect
Keiner DelgadoSSAA98—400.250.15Protect
Cy NielsonSIRPAAA99106 AAA · 318 p35+0.230.03Expose
Brandon NeeckLHPAAA108106 AAA · 833 p—0.210.01Expose
Justin MeisRHPAAA9288 AAA · 1,004 p—0.210.01Expose
Landon TomkinsRHPAAA8492 AAA · 160 p—0.210.01Expose
Michael WalshRHPAAA106——0.210.01Expose
Nick DombkowskiLHPAAA10288 AAA · 1,415 p—0.210.01Expose
Jesus CastilloSSAAA94——0.170.03Expose
Mike JarvisOFAAA79——0.170.00Expose
Mitch JebbOFAAA104——0.170.04Expose

Protect a player whose pick risk is 0.3 or more, or graded FV 50+, at most three; never one every club passed on this year. While fewer than three are protected, also protect the eligible player whose expected loss tops what his 40-man spot costs under today's rules (nothing while the plan's 40-man has an open spot, else the next player in the cut order). Risk is ordered, not calibrated. Pick risk is the plan’s ordering by level, position and grade (no Rule 5 selections in our data to calibrate it); expected loss = risk × his long-term value, in wins: 2027 WAR or call-up value, plus prospect value at $10M per win. Every eligible player is in the table below (Rule 5 column). Rule 5 brief.

Age vs. performance · hitters

Whole 2026 season. Circle size = PA. Labels: FV 45+ and push candidates; tap a dot to name it. Org-depth veterans and 2 late signings whose season was mostly another club’s are in the table, not the chart.

−6−4−20+2+480100120140Younger for level (yrs) →Perf+ →↑ Perf+Young & producingOld for level, strugglingFlorentinoSanfordJ. De Los SantosGrayGoursonGarciaJohnsonPlazJonesWhiteSantanaBorges
Ready to pushOn trackWatchStallingSmall sampleMoved up since

Spring promotion queue

Prospects ready to push, best expected next season first (the plan’s trade and Rule 5 calls are above)

  1. Seth Hernandez SP · now A+ · A 136 → A+ 115 · age 20.0 exp. 108 IL FV 60
  2. Murf Gray 3B · now AA · A 123 → A+ 116 → AA 111 · age 22.5 exp. 107 FV 45
  3. Jared Jones 1B · now A+ · CPX 45 → A 117 → A+ 116 · age 22.9 exp. 106 FV 35+
  4. Wyatt Sanford SS · now A+ · A 103 → A+ 116 · age 20.6 exp. 105 FV 45+
  5. Lonnie White Jr. OF · now AA · A+ 118 → AA 109 · age 23.5 exp. 105 Rule 5: Expose
  6. Axiel Plaz C · now A+ · A+ 110 · age 20.9 exp. 104 Rule 5: Expose FV 40+
  7. Derek Diamond SIRP · now AAA · CPX 92 → A 114 → AA 139 → AAA 108 · age 25.5 exp. 104 Rule 5: Protect FV 40
  8. Yoander Santana SS · now DSL · DSL 110 · age 18.6 exp. 102
  9. Oscar Borges C · now DSL · DSL 110 · age 17.8 exp. 102

The label’s forward test, every club’s minor leaguers 2025 → 2026: 72% of push hitters (n 151) and 67% of push pitchers (n 169) stayed at Perf+ 100 or better the next season, against 44% and 47% of everyone else. They averaged about 105 the next year, not 110+.

Path to Pittsburgh

The Winter Plan’s 2027 starter at each spot (decisions feed) and the organization’s next in line: graded or push hitters, by FV then expected Perf+

C Rafael Flores Jr.

  1. Axiel Plaz A+ · FV 40+ · ETA 2028 · exp. 104 · R5
  2. Easton Carmichael AA · FV 40 · ETA 2029 · exp. 102
  3. Edgleen Perez A · FV 40 · ETA 2029 · exp. 100 · 60-day IL

1B Ryan O'Hearn

  1. Tony Blanco Jr. A+ · FV 40+ · ETA 2028 · exp. 103 · R5
  2. Jared Jones A+ · FV 35+ · ETA 2029 · exp. 106

2B Nick Gonzales

2028: Nick Gonzales is still under club control (arbitration), projected 1.3 WAR.

  1. Termarr Johnson AAA · FV 45 · ETA 2027 · exp. 97 · R5, plan protects · full-season IL
  2. Nick Yorke AAA · FV 35+ · ETA 2026 · exp. 98
  3. Tyler Callihan AAA · FV 35+ · ETA 2026 · exp. 97

2026 draft: Chris Rembert (#51, $8.7M)

3B Isaac Paredes

Reopens in 2028: Isaac Paredes can leave after 2027; the engine’s best in-house successor today is Duce Gourson (AAA, 1.5 WAR/600 at third).

  1. Murf Gray AA · FV 45 · ETA 2029 · exp. 107
  2. Duce Gourson AAA · FV 45 · ETA 2027 · exp. 101

2026 draft: Tre Phelps (#258, $320K)

SS Konnor Griffin

  1. Wyatt Sanford A+ · FV 45+ · ETA 2029 · exp. 105
  2. Darell Morel CPX · FV 40+ · ETA 2031 · exp. 99
  3. Yordany De Los Santos A+ · FV 40 · ETA 2029 · exp. 101 · R5

2026 draft: Aiden Ruiz (#44, $10.1M)

LF Bryan Reynolds

  1. No graded prospect

CF Oneil Cruz

  1. Johan De Los Santos CPX · FV 45+ · ETA 2031 · exp. 100
  2. Lonnie White Jr. AA · FV — · ETA — · exp. 105 · R5

2026 draft: Derek Curiel (#5, $34.4M), Andruw Giles (#108, $4.0M)

RF Esmerlyn Valdez

  1. Edward Florentino A+ · FV 50 · ETA 2029 · exp. 103
  2. Jeancer Custodio DSL · FV 40 · ETA 2032 · exp. 98

The plan’s trade for Isaac Paredes sends Jhostynxon Garcia (CF) and Jacob Gonzalez (SS): Jacob Gonzalez is the middle infielder leaving, so the 2B/SS/3B pipeline keeps $113.0M of its $116.0M in prospect value. That total includes $19.1M of provisional value for 2026 draftees Chris Rembert, Tre Phelps and Aiden Ruiz (the draft curve scaled to FanGraphs’ table). Konnor Griffin is the plan’s shortstop, so shortstop prospects reach Pittsburgh at second or third, or as trade value. ETA is FanGraphs’; expected Perf+ is this season’s, shrunk.

Blocked: a regular holds their spot through their ETA 11 on the Positional Depth grid, Winter Plan roster

  1. Axiel Plaz C 2028–31 Trade Builder → C · A+ · FV 40+ · $8.0M · arrives 2028 · behind Rafael Flores Jr., 2028–31 (1.6 expected WAR against a 1.7 bar in 2028) · a move: 1B is thin or open in 2029–31 · clubs short at C: PHI 0.97, TEX 0.92, BOS 0.87
  2. Kyler Fedko RF 2027–31 Trade Builder → RF · AAA · FV 40 · $5.4M · arrives 2027 · behind Esmerlyn Valdez, 2027–31 (1.7 expected WAR against a 1.5 bar in 2027) · a move: LF is thin or open in 2028–30, 1B is thin or open in 2029–31 · clubs short at RF: PHI 0.78, LAA 0.76, BAL 0.71
  3. Keiner Delgado SS 2028–31 Trade Builder → SS · AA · FV 40 · $5.5M · arrives 2028 · behind Konnor Griffin, 2028–31 (2.2 expected WAR against a 2.4 bar in 2028) · a move: 2B is thin or open in 2030–31, 3B is thin or open in 2028–31 · protected for Rule 5 in the plan · clubs short at SS: HOU 0.91, SD 0.82, ATL 0.80
  4. Jean Cabrera SP 2027–28 Trade Builder → SP · AA · FV 45 · $9.5M · arrives 2027 · behind a rotation whose weakest slot clears half its bar: Mitch Keller (SP5), 2027–28 (1.2 expected WAR against a 0.6 bar in 2027) · clubs short in the rotation: SD 1.00, TOR 0.56, CHC 0.56
  5. Easton Carmichael C 2029–31 Trade Builder → C · AA · FV 40 · $5.5M · arrives 2029 · behind Rafael Flores Jr., 2029–31 (1.5 expected WAR against a 1.7 bar in 2029) · a move: 1B is thin or open in 2029–31 · clubs short at C: ATH 0.97, PHI 0.96, BOS 0.96
  6. Yordany De Los Santos SS 2029–31 Trade Builder → SS · A+ · FV 40 · $5.5M · arrives 2029 · behind Konnor Griffin, 2029–31 (2.5 expected WAR against a 2.4 bar in 2029) · a move: 2B is thin or open in 2030–31, 3B is thin or open in 2029–31 · clubs short at SS: SD 0.96, HOU 0.95, ATL 0.85
  7. Edgleen Perez C 2029–31 Trade Builder → C · A · FV 40 · $5.5M · arrives 2029 · behind Rafael Flores Jr., 2029–31 (1.5 expected WAR against a 1.7 bar in 2029) · a move: 1B is thin or open in 2029–31 · clubs short at C: ATH 0.97, PHI 0.96, BOS 0.96
  8. Matt Ager SP 2027–29 Trade Builder → SP · AA · FV 40 · $4.0M · arrives 2027 · behind a rotation whose weakest slot clears half its bar: Mitch Keller (SP5), 2027–28 (1.2 expected WAR against a 0.6 bar in 2027); Seth Hernandez (SP5), 2029 (0.9 expected WAR against a 0.6 bar in 2029) · clubs short in the rotation: SD 1.00, TOR 0.67, CHC 0.67
  9. Aiden Ruiz SS 2031 Trade Builder → SS · FCL · 2026 #44 pick, ungraded · $10.1M · arrives 2031 · behind Konnor Griffin, 2031 (2.8 expected WAR against a 2.4 bar in 2031) · a move: 2B is thin or open in 2031, 3B is thin or open in 2031 · clubs short at SS: SD 0.99, HOU 0.98, TOR 0.95
  10. Darell Morel SS 2031 Trade Builder → SS · FCL · FV 40+ · $8.0M · arrives 2031 · behind Konnor Griffin, 2031 (2.8 expected WAR against a 2.4 bar in 2031) · a move: 2B is thin or open in 2031, 3B is thin or open in 2031 · clubs short at SS: SD 0.99, HOU 0.98, TOR 0.95
  11. Gustavo Melendez SS 2031 Trade Builder → SS · FCL · FV 35+ · $2.0M · arrives 2031 · behind Konnor Griffin, 2031 (2.8 expected WAR against a 2.4 bar in 2031) · a move: 2B is thin or open in 2031, 3B is thin or open in 2031 · clubs short at SS: SD 0.99, HOU 0.98, TOR 0.95

A prospect is listed when his spot is held by a regular-caliber player (at least half the regular bar, the depth model’s line) in his arrival season and in most of his first three seasons (the trade fit’s window), and the model gives him no slot then. Ranked by trade value × seasons blocked through 2031. Arrival is FanGraphs’ ETA, never earlier than his level allows; the grid counts five starters, not the injuries that open starts. Relievers never count: every club carries spare relief arms. Left off: the top 3 by value, which the package rule keeps (also blocked: Termarr Johnson, 2B 2027–28, on the plan’s 2027 roster), and prospects the plan trades or carries in 2027. Blocked isn’t the depth model’s surplus, which counts only a regular-caliber player (at least half the bar) left with no slot: a prospect’s expected WAR is bust-weighted, so few reach that line, and /depth can shade a spot as a need while a prospect waits behind its starter. A prospect the model does list as surplus is tagged so. “Clubs short” are those whose need there averages over one half in those seasons (needs.json): the partners a trade fit favors. Estimates throughout.

Where the path is open (tagged need in the tables): Seth Hernandez (the rotation, short 2030), Derek Curiel (CF, short 2029–31), Johan De Los Santos (CF, short 2031), Duce Gourson (3B, short 2028–29), Murf Gray (3B, short 2029–31), Chris Rembert (2B, short 2030–31), and 14 more. Positional Depth →

Grade vs. performance

A screening read for promotion and trade talks, not a valuation: graded prospects whose expected Perf+ sits outside the 80% band around the median for their FanGraphs grade (34 checked; medians from every organization’s graded prospects)

Producing above his grade

  • Murf Gray 3B · FV 45 · exp. 107 vs. 102 for FV 45 (+6.0; band ±5.5) · path: behind Isaac Paredes (plan, 2027) · $14.5M

Producing below his grade

  • Antwone Kelly SIRP · FV 40+ · exp. 95 vs. 101 for FV 40+ (−5.9; band ±5.4) · $6.9M

Expected Perf+ already pulls the season toward 100 by how much carries over; the band is that estimate’s own uncertainty. A scout’s grade sees tools, age and defense a stat line can’t, so a gap is a reason to look again, not a verdict: a hitter outrunning his grade may be ready sooner or worth more in a trade than his grade says; one trailing it may need the grade re-checked. Path = the plan’s 2027 starter at his spot and the organization’s next in line ahead of him.

102 hitters · All

Sorted by FanGraphs FV, then expected Perf+. Level = where he finished (hover it for his season by level). Rates shown vs. level average.

PlayerLvlAgeΔ ageΔ agePAK% (lvl)BB% (lvl)ISOOPS+Perf+Exp.Exp.TrendFVTrade valueETARule 5Read
Edward Florentino RF A++119−2.9−2.947526% 24%15% 12%.262 120108103103−1450$45.0M · top 32029Dec 2028On track
Wyatt Sanford SS A++120−2.0−2.036329% 24%14% 12%.259 155115105105+945+$18.5M2029Dec 2028Ready to push
Johan De Los Santos CF need CPX+117−2.6−2.62318% 24%16% 14%.124 12398100100−1645+$18.5M2031Dec 2029On track
Murf Gray 3B need AA+222−0.3−0.355822% 24%15% 11%.226 134117107107—45$14.5M2029Dec 2028Ready to push
Duce Gourson 3B need AAA+123−1.4−1.454125% 22%13% 11%.179 120103101101−945$14.5M2027Dec 2027On track
Jhostynxon Garcia CF plan tradeAAA+223−2.7−2.732424% 22%8% 11%.163 102103101101−445$13.4M · plan trade202640-manOn track
Termarr Johnson 2B blocked IL AAA22−4.7−4.740625% 22%17% 11%.120 75919797−1545$14.5M2027Protect (plan)Watch
Axiel Plaz C blocked A+20−1.8−1.841217% 24%9% 12%.207 136110104104+640+$8.0M2028Eligible · exposeReady to push
Tony Blanco Jr. 1B need A++221−1.4−1.434929% 24%10% 12%.319 137109103103−540+$8.0M2028Eligible · exposeOn track
Darell Morel SS blocked CPX+118−1.3−1.316929% 24%16% 14%.172 77939999−1640+$8.0M2031Dec 2029On track
Kyler Fedko RF blocked IL term ? MIN line AAA260.00.030723% 22%11% 11%.271 136113104104+140$5.4M2026Eligible · exposeReady to push
Easton Carmichael C blocked AA+122−0.5−0.548415% 24%7% 11%.168 92104102102—40$5.5M2029Dec 2028On track
Yordany De Los Santos SS blocked A++121−1.2−1.242629% 24%8% 12%.219 112103101101+240$5.5M2029Eligible · exposeOn track
Jack Brannigan SS AAA+4250.00.037825% 22%14% 11%.136 80100100100−140$5.5M202740-manOn track
Edgleen Perez C blocked IL A20−1.1−1.133514% 24%12% 13%.056 9899100100+740$5.5M2029Dec 2027On track
Keiner Delgado SS blocked AA+122−2.1−2.152820% 24%12% 11%.135 96989999−1040$5.5M2028Protect (plan)On track
Jeancer Custodio RF DSL17−0.5−0.55028% 20%10% 17%.045 19769898—40$5.5M2032Dec 2030Small sample
Jared Jones 1B need A++222+0.4+0.438329% 24%14% 12%.256 155116106106—35+$2.0M2029Dec 2028Ready to push
Wilton Guerrero Jr. SS DSL17−1.1−1.118612% 20%10% 17%.075 101100100100—35+$2.0M2032Dec 2030On track
Nick Yorke 2B AAA+124−1.8−1.816122% 22%9% 11%.138 68919898−1035+$1.7M202640-manWatch
Gustavo Melendez SS blocked CPX18−1.3−1.315726% 24%26% 14%.045 63909898—35+$2.0M2031Dec 2029Watch
Tyler Callihan 2B AAA26−0.8−0.837825% 22%11% 11%.135 78939797−2435+$1.7M202640-manOn track
Lonnie White Jr. OF AA+123−0.4−0.448432% 24%13% 11%.238 129111105105+7———Eligible · exposeReady to push
Brent Iredale 3B A+222+1.8+1.832030% 24%16% 13%.242 130110103103+2———Dec 2028On track
Eddie King Jr. OF A+123+2.1+2.149221% 24%18% 13%.139 117106103103————Dec 2028On track
Jesus Lizardo C DSL19+1.5+1.59316% 20%25% 17%.188 163118102102+28———Dec 2028Small sample
Yoander Santana SS DSL18+0.4+0.418011% 20%21% 17%.153 136110102102+3———Dec 2029Ready to push
Oscar Borges C DSL17−0.4−0.41599% 20%23% 17%.042 136110102102————Dec 2030Ready to push
Richard Ramirez C A+120−0.4−0.436228% 24%8% 13%.258 127105102102−3———Eligible · exposeOn track
Hanley Ramirez OF DSL19+0.9+0.914527% 20%19% 17%.195 137111102102+25———Dec 2029Small sample
Francisco Loreto IF CPX+119−1.1−1.111634% 24%11% 14%.258 145110101101+6———Dec 2028Small sample
Jhonny Severino SS A+21−1.0−1.047422% 24%7% 12%.268 115104101101+8———unknown (Dec 2025–27)On track
Frankeli Mesta SS DSL19+0.9+0.911215% 20%21% 17%.184 135110101101+13———Dec 2028Small sample
Mitch Jebb OF AAA+324−1.7−1.734116% 22%11% 11%.189 120104101101+4———Eligible · exposeOn track
Gilbert Ramirez C DSL17−0.8−0.816112% 20%25% 17%.036 121106101101————Dec 2030On track
Enmanuel Valdez 1B FA in Nov? AAA27+0.7+0.748917% 22%9% 11%.194 103102101101————Likely MiLB FAOrg depth
Carlos Tejera OF CPX17−2.0−2.011321% 24%21% 14%.171 114105101101————Dec 2030Small sample
Carlos Caro 2B A++321−0.8−0.827025% 24%14% 12%.121 102101100100+15———Dec 2027On track
Carl Calixte OF CPX+119−0.5−0.517625% 24%15% 14%.182 121102100100+15———Dec 2028On track
Christian Bethancourt C FA in Nov? AAA34+8.0+8.026622% 22%5% 11%.206 101101100100+20———Likely MiLB FAOrg depth
Michell Ojeda 2B IL CPX19−0.6−0.62326% 24%9% 14%.250 118106100100+14———Dec 2028Small sample
Enmanuel Rosas OF DSL17−0.7−0.710% 20%0% 17%.000 415193100100————Dec 2030Small sample
Chris Rembert 2B need A20−0.3−0.38224% 24%17% 13%.060 105101100100——$8.7M · draft—Dec 2029Small sample
Camden Janik C A++123+1.1+1.119815% 24%16% 12%.085 112100100100−1———Dec 2027On track
Titus Dumitru OF AA23−1.1−1.149223% 24%10% 11%.177 981001001000———Dec 2027On track
Jayden Kim SS CPX+119−0.3−0.37022% 24%17% 14%.042 11399100100+9———Dec 2028Small sample
Josh Tate OF A++122+0.9+0.944725% 24%9% 12%.156 10899100100+6———Dec 2028Watch
Callan Moss 1B AA22−1.4−1.453024% 24%9% 11%.133 9799100100−16———Dec 2027On track
Anyelo Jean SS DSL17−0.6−0.616334% 20%15% 17%.145 9799100100————Dec 2030On track
Dylan Palmer 2B A++122+0.8+0.845912% 24%12% 12%.078 10999100100————Dec 2028Watch
Eddie Rynders SS IL A20−0.6−0.622045% 24%14% 13%.204 9799100100+5———Dec 2028On track
Jack Scanlon C term ? A25+3.9+3.98636% 24%12% 13%.162 9297100100————Dec 2029Small sample
Nick Cimillo 1B AAA+126−0.2−0.239329% 22%12% 11%.214 9599100100−11———Eligible · exposeOrg depth
Juan Figueroa OF DSL17−0.9−0.915913% 20%18% 17%.041 9598100100————Dec 2030On track
Rolthemnay Marquetti OF DSL17−1.0−1.013431% 20%22% 17%.080 9398100100————Dec 2030Small sample
Freilyn Rodriguez SS DSL17−1.1−1.114631% 20%16% 17%.042 9398100100————Dec 2030Small sample
Enyerberth Guevara C DSL17−0.4−0.412922% 20%16% 17%.081 9297100100————Dec 2030Small sample
Antonio Pimentel 2B A20−0.5−0.542023% 24%10% 13%.134 97999999−30———Dec 2027On track
Iverson Allen OF DSL18+0.7+0.713219% 20%17% 17%.069 91979999−8———Dec 2028Small sample
Adbiel Feliz SS CPX19−0.6−0.6617% 24%25% 14%.043 749399990———Dec 2028Small sample
Will Taylor OF AA23−0.7−0.745326% 24%10% 11%.143 94989999−15———Dec 2027On track
Ashton Kennedy RHP DSL18+0.1+0.13540% 20%17% 17%.036 43839999————Dec 2030Small sample
Victor Familia C DSL19+1.2+1.28721% 20%17% 17%.064 73929999−14———Dec 2029Small sample
Carter Gwost OF IL CPX19−0.6−0.62646% 24%23% 14%.000 5749999————Dec 2029Small sample
Yadier Crespo C DSL18+0.2+0.213015% 20%9% 17%.038 81949999————Dec 2029Small sample
Jonathan Rivero C CPX+120+0.5+0.511914% 24%9% 14%.095 75929999+2———Dec 2027Small sample
Adrian Martinez SS DSL17−1.1−1.116516% 20%21% 17%.026 81949999————Dec 2030On track
Jean Rodriguez OF DSL19+1.4+1.411716% 20%15% 17%.110 74929999————Dec 2029Small sample
Armstrong Muhoozi SS CPX18−1.0−1.05227% 24%10% 14%.043 33829999−15———Dec 2029Small sample
Tre Phelps 3B need A22+0.8+0.87423% 24%11% 13%.070 58879999——$320K · draft—Dec 2029Small sample
Javier Acevedo C CPX19−0.7−0.78232% 24%13% 14%.100 50879999−25———Dec 2028Small sample
Angel Alvarez IF DSL17−0.4−0.47431% 20%11% 17%.051 51859999————Dec 2030Small sample
Cameron Barstad C FA in Nov? CLE line AAA+125+0.5+0.521043% 22%6% 11%.177 78949999+1———Likely MiLB FAWatch
Victor Marquez C DSL18−0.1−0.113714% 20%20% 17%.030 69919898−10———Dec 2029Small sample
Matt King 3B AA+123+0.1+0.131015% 24%11% 11%.038 74959898————Dec 2028Watch
Dionis Leyba OF DSL17−0.4−0.412038% 20%12% 17%.167 64899898————Dec 2030Small sample
Bralyn Brazoban OF A+119−1.1−1.132237% 24%12% 13%.091 64959898+2———Dec 2028On track
Derek Berg C AAA+124−0.4−0.439734% 22%8% 11%.110 46959898−9———Dec 2027Watch
Ryan McCarty 1B FA in Nov? AA+127+1.8+1.818422% 24%16% 11%.111 77929898−6———Likely MiLB FAOrg depth
Luis Almeida SS DSL18+0.6+0.69823% 20%12% 17%.087 53869898————Dec 2030Small sample
Cristian Jauregui OF A20−0.9−0.932427% 24%9% 13%.118 82949898−4———Dec 2027On track
Jose Herrera C term ? TEX line AAA29+2.5+2.515520% 22%14% 11%.092 70909898————Eligible · exposeOrg depth
Edgar Walker OF CPX18−1.3−1.311720% 24%11% 14%.059 51879898−18———Dec 2029Small sample
Kendrick Herrera 3B CPX+119−1.0−1.010726% 24%24% 14%.038 44869898−11———Dec 2028Small sample
Luke Scherrer 1B A+121+0.3+0.326727% 24%10% 13%.103 79939898+6———Dec 2027Watch
Raymond Mola 1B A+1200.00.013640% 24%15% 13%.018 15879898−31———Dec 2027Small sample
Jesus Castillo SS AAA+422−1.6−1.639019% 22%11% 11%.012 759498980———Eligible · exposeOn track
Alexandel Pio SS DSL17−0.7−0.718041% 20%15% 17%.129 62889898————Dec 2030Watch
Joshua Palacios CF FA in Nov? AAA30+4.1+4.114017% 22%9% 11%.057 59869898−10———Likely MiLB FAOrg depth
Javier Rivas SS AA+223−0.2−0.232627% 24%5% 11%.167 72929797−13———Eligible · exposeWatch
Fredderick Ovalle 2B CPX+119−1.8−1.82239% 24%10% 14%.069 114909797−18———Dec 2029Watch
Ivan Brethowr RF AA+223−0.5−0.526932% 24%14% 11%.104 60919797−14———Dec 2027Watch
Angel Nieto C DSL17−0.7−0.77228% 20%7% 17%.015 1709797————Dec 2030Small sample
Jhoendris Santos SS DSL16−1.2−1.217828% 20%8% 17%.101 55869797————Dec 2030Watch
Shalin Polanco OF A++122−0.5−0.533528% 24%13% 12%.193 84919797−9———Eligible · exposeWatch
Gabriel Rodriguez OF CPX18−1.2−1.216429% 24%13% 14%.083 39849797−19———Dec 2029Watch
Fernando Triana OF DSL17−0.5−0.515427% 20%15% 17%.077 42829797————Dec 2030Watch
Canon Reeder OF A+123+2.0+2.022330% 24%19% 13%.032 57879797————Dec 2028Stalling
Mike Jarvis OF AAA+228+2.1+2.113433% 22%11% 11%.071 41799696−6———Eligible · exposeOrg depth
Samuel Escudero C AA+122−0.8−0.89125% 24%5% 11%.059 5709696−16———Eligible · exposeSmall sample
Robert Hassell III CF FA in Nov? AAA+224−1.6−1.637925% 22%10% 11%.081 69899696−19———Likely MiLB FAWatch
Grae Kessinger 3B FA in Nov? AAA+228+3.1+3.120225% 22%9% 11%.058 4759494————Likely MiLB FAOrg depth

Perf+ is his whole season, every level weighted by its sample. Park index by affiliate, OPS+ points (Indianapolis −3.4, Altoona −1.5, Greensboro +9.5, Bradenton +0.2): an estimate from team lines both ways, regressed; on 1,379 hitters with full seasons in 2025 and 2026, 0.33 of a change in it (± 0.18) showed up in their raw Perf+, so Perf+ takes out 33% of it. Exp. is that Perf+ shrunk toward 100 by how much carried over from 2025 to 2026. Trend is marked only when the change beats ordinary year-to-year movement (±10) on full samples both years. Stuff is pitch quality, not a forecast: AAA Stuff predicted MLB K−BB% at r 0.06 on the forward test (Track Record).

In the organization, no 2026 line (15)

Draftees, unassigned signings and seasons lost to injury: counted in the Rule 5 totals where eligible. A 2026 draftee’s value is the trade pool’s: the draft curve at his pick, scaled to FanGraphs’ table, provisional.

PlayerPosLvlWhy no lineFVValueRule 5
Griffin StiegRHPFCL2026 draftee——Dec 2029
Keuri AlmonteLHPFCLon the full-season IL (no 2026 games)——Dec 2027
Jason DeCaroRHPneedFCL2026 draftee—$7.6M · draftDec 2029
Ryan MarohnLHPneedFCL2026 draftee—$2.1M · draftDec 2029
Jose RegaladoLHPFCLon the full-season IL (no 2026 games)——eligible
Derek CurielOFneedFCL2026 draftee—$34.4M · draft · top 3Dec 2029
Tyler FayRHPneedFCL2026 draftee—$1.5M · draftDec 2029
Spencer EvansLHPFCL2026 draftee——Dec 2030
Aiden RuizSSblockedFCL2026 draftee—$10.1M · draftDec 2029
Andruw GilesOFFCL2026 draftee—$4.0M · draftDec 2030
Owen PrinceOFFCLno 2026 minor-league games in our data——Dec 2029
Damarcus Rideout-CarterRHPFCL2026 draftee——Dec 2030
Chun Hsi LinRHPFCLsigned, not yet assigned——Dec 2029–30
Liam O'LearyRHPFCL2026 draftee——Dec 2029
Jeffrey BustosRHPFCLsigned, not yet assigned——Dec 2029–30

Left the organization in 2026 (70)

Traded, claimed, released or retired: out of every list on the site, named here so the board and the organization reconcile

Keystone is an independent portfolio project. It is not affiliated with Major League Baseball or any club. Data: MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs. Used under their terms for individual, non-commercial use.