Overview / Command Center

What decisions are coming, and where is our edge?

Pittsburgh finished 82–80 (+28 run differential), 6.0 games out of the last Wild Card. The Winter Plan projects 81.7 wins for 2027 (80% range 70–94) and 44% playoff odds. 8 calls are due before the CBA expires Dec 1, when a lockout would freeze transactions; each has a decision brief.

For general manager, baseball operations leadership Season final Sep 27 · rosters as of Oct 21

Decide now

Every call the plan makes, by its deadline. Today is Oct 22. Wins are 2027 wins on the plan’s engine; money is 2027 payroll on the luxury-tax basis.

All decision briefs

Decision
Deadline
Risk
Context
Oct 23: World Series opens
Dec 7: Winter Meetings · Rule 5 draft

When	Decision	The call	Wins	2027 payroll	40-man	Confidence	Brief
≈ by Nov 5in 14d	Third catcher	Re-sign Christian Bethancourt to a minor-league dealBefore he can elect minor-league free agency; no 40-man spot.			0	Low	Brief
≈ Nov 1–5in 14d	Qualifying offer to Brandon Lowe	Extend the $23.15M offerExpect him to decline (his market: 3 yr × $30.8M a year, above the offer); then a pick worth about $8.6M net of the bonus. If he accepts: 83.5 wins (+1.8 over the plan's 81.7), 51% odds, +$22.4M payroll; then also acquire Isaac Paredes before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17).			0	Medium	Brief
≈ Nov 1–5in 14d	Houston's option on Isaac Paredes	Watch: $13.35M club optionIf Houston declines it he stays theirs through arbitration (Keystone's reading of the CBA), so the trade still runs through Houston.				Medium	Brief
≈ Nov 11–15in 24d	Lowe answers	His decisionParedes adds wins either way, so the trade needn't wait. If he accepts, the plan's 40-man is already full at the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17): also acquire Isaac Paredes before it.				Medium	Brief
by Nov 17in 26d	A 40-man spot for the Rule 5 filing	Trade or release Henry DavisShop him first. If nothing comes, release him before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17): the plan's three protections need his spot, and the 40-man reaches 40 only with him gone. The non-tender deadline (Nov 20) falls after the filing (Keystone's reading of the CBA). A toss-up on value under today's rules, so the plan takes the option that ties up no 40-man spot. On the owners' proposed terms the call flips only if the floor money has no other use (tender Henry Davis, decide in spring: +$2.6M); at face value re-signing Christian Bethancourt still holds (+$372K, against −$400K for tendering and deciding in spring).		−$734K	−1	Low	Brief
Nov 17in 26d	Rule 5 protection	Protect Termarr Johnson, Derek Diamond and Keiner Delgado3 of 54 eligible; the 40-man reaches 40.			+3	Medium	Brief
by Dec 1in 40d	Skenes extension	Medical review by mid-November; offer only if benignUp to $22.6M a year for 5 years against a $22.3M market price, a gap inside the model's typical miss.				Low	Brief
by Dec 1in 40d	Mitch Keller	Keep him; medicals firstA trade saves $6.9M of 2027 payroll and costs 0.7 wins. Keep him and add a starter (Jack Flaherty): +1.0 wins; his price doesn't beat the market price of a win, so it waits with the floor money; if he signs before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17), also acquire Isaac Paredes first.				Low	Brief
≈ Nov 1 – Dec 1in 40d	Trade for Isaac Paredes	Acquire Isaac Paredes (HOU) for Jacob Gonzalez (FV 35+) + Jhostynxon Garcia (FV 45)+2.6 wins for $12.6M of 2027 payroll and $16.4M in prospects; his value is the bat (his glove rates 5.0 runs a season below Jared Triolo's at third). On price it is short of the market price of a win (0.90 wins per $10M against 1.11, 0.62 wins below what $29.0M buys at that rate); it goes ahead because nothing else adds its wins (the next option adds 1.0 fewer).	+2.6	$12.6M	−1	Medium	Brief
≈ Nov 5 – Dec 1in 40d	Free agency and the floor	Wait for the CBA with the floor listAt today's prices Jake Bauers, Jack Flaherty and Alex Vesia cost $38.2M a year ($4.1M over the gap) for +3.2 wins, 0.83 wins per $10M against the market's 1.11: none of the list clears it; on the owners' proposed terms the list costs $33.6M. No other use the plan measures clears it (best not already in the plan: Jack Flaherty, mid-tier starter, 0.98). A signing before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17) needs a cut first (Noah Murdock): the plan's 40-man is at 40 then, with Henry Davis already released.	+3.2if signed	$38.2Mat today's prices	+1	Medium	Brief
Dec 1in 40d	CBA expires	Everything above closes by hereA lockout is expected from Dec 2: transactions and talks with 40-man players freeze.

2027, in wins

One engine for every row; the 80% range is where the season should land 8 times in 10. Playoff odds from the Outlook’s simulated seasons.

The 2026 club brought back 81.3 · 42%80% range 69–93
As it stands, before any signings 79.0 · 33%80% range 67–91
The Winter Plan 81.7 · 44%80% range 70–94
Plus the free-agent list to the floor 84.8 · 56%80% range 73–97

As it stands the club is on the steep part of the win curve: the next win is worth about 3.7 points of playoff odds (±0.1 at two standard errors of the simulation), and 4.0 at the plan’s 81.7 (4.0 at the steepest, around 83 wins). The other 29 clubs are credited about 4.1 free-agent wins each; Pittsburgh’s own signings live in the plan. See the win curve →

2027 payroll, one basis

Luxury-tax basis, benefits included, on the owners’ proposed terms (a proposal, not a rule). Under today’s rules there is no floor.

As it stands$125.1M
The Winter Plan$137.2M
Plus the free-agent list$170.8M
Proposed floor$171.2M

Distance to the floor: $46.1M as it stands, $34.0M after the plan, $445K after the free-agent list. Under today’s rules the same payrolls are $126.7M and $138.6M. Model the scenarios →

Edges, in wins

In one currency: 2027 wins, and points of playoff odds near the plan’s 81.7 wins. Largest first. The free-agent list is the plan’s call for after the CBA, not before it; the in-game levers are set before spring.

Free-Agent Board · after the CBA +3.2 wins≈13 pts 3 signings to reach the proposed floor Jake Bauers 2 yr, Jack Flaherty 2 yr, Alex Vesia 1 yr: $33.6M a year at the owners’-terms prices (a proposal, not a rule), with 2 cuts on the 40-man (Noah Murdock, Lake Bachar). Signed before Dec 1 at today’s prices ($38.2M), the list buys 0.83 wins per $10M against the market’s 1.11: the plan waits for the CBA. See the board Bullpen Strategy +0.3 wins≈1 pt ≈3.3 runs from the hook Mitch Keller as a two-times-through starter, about 29 more relief innings. The third time through, hitters gain +.012 xwOBA over their first two looks. Only if Keller is healthy: he ended 2026 on the injured list. Set the hooks ABS Challenge Coach ≈0 wins The break-even card: about zero runs against how clubs challenged Don’t go back to the old count grid: in a forward test it cost 9.4 runs per club a season, late-game exception included. A failed challenge costs about 0.03 runs, not the flat 0.21 that grid assumed. Pittsburgh won 47.0% of challenges (MLB 53.9%), 30th of 30: a 5.9-run accuracy gap in 2026. Regressed for how much of club accuracy is real (catchers 54%, batters 10%), 2026’s gap is about 1.7 runs short, mostly the 2026 catchers’ shift; with the plan’s 2027 catchers in their place, about 0.8 runs short (0.08 wins). See the card

Context

2026 Season Review 82–80 Records like 2026’s (Pythagorean 84, BaseRuns 89) have meant about 83–86 wins the next season, give or take 10. Brought back intact the same club projects 81.3 for 2027, and 79.0 once its free agents leave. How good were we really? Hitting Lab .701 OPS vs LHP 17th in MLB against lefties (MLB .711) and 6th against righties (.749; MLB .723). The lab splits it into swing decisions and contact. Diagnose it Pitch Lab .308 → .317 wOBA allowed by the rotation, 2025 to 2026 (±.025 at two standard errors); expected wOBA, strikeouts and walks included, went .314 → .307 (±.018). Both changes are within noise; the lab looks for the pitch changes that are real. Open the lab Prospect Pipeline 9 ready to push Seth Hernandez, Wyatt Sanford, Murf Gray lead them. 54 players are Rule 5 eligible; the plan protects 3 by Nov 17. See the queue Rival Intel 26–26 vs NL Central in 2026 Each division rival’s 2027 projection, how good its staff and lineup are, the pitch to sit on against its staff, and who is leaving. Open the dossiers Development Tracker 98.2 → 96.8 Paul Skenes’s fastball velocity, 2025 to 2026: the loudest of 20 clear declines across 14 players staying in 2027 (3 of them his), against 6 gains; 4 more are on players leaving. It feeds the extension decision, due by Dec 1 (see the Skenes brief). Open the tracker

Organization · DSL → MLB

Current assignment. Top players by FanGraphs FV; at MLB by full-season projected 2027 WAR (the plan’s playing time is in each tooltip). Public tracking coverage on the right.

MLB Pittsburgh 412 IL3 FA Paul Skenes 4.8Braxton Ashcraft 3.0Jared Jones 2.4Oneil Cruz 2.3 Pitch + bat
AAA Indianapolis 293 IL Duce Gourson 45 Termarr Johnson 45 Kyler Fedko 40 Derek Diamond 40 Pitch
AA Altoona 344 IL Jean Cabrera 45 Murf Gray 45 Matt Ager 40 Easton Carmichael 40 No tracking
A+ Greensboro 426 IL Seth Hernandez 60 Edward Florentino 50 Wyatt Sanford 45+Axiel Plaz 40+ No tracking
A Bradenton 377 IL Jesus Travieso 40+Edgleen Perez 40 Irwin Ramirez 35+David Matoma 35+ Partial
FCL FCL Pirates 385 IL Johan De Los Santos 45+Darell Morel 40+McLane Moody 35+Gustavo Melendez 35+ No tracking
DSL DSL Black / Gold 653 IL Jeancer Custodio 40 Wilton Guerrero Jr. 35+ No tracking

The MLB row lists 41 players: 2 on the 60-day IL, who don’t count against the 40-man until after the World Series (it stands at 39), and 3 pending free agents who come off then. “IL” counts players on an injured list today. Tracking coverage is public data only: AA, High-A, the complex leagues and the DSL are blind spots that internal Hawk-Eye or TrackMan would fill. Data & coverage →

Rule 5 protection queue

Top 12 of 54 eligible by pick risk · CBA rule: draft or signing date and age

Player	Lvl	FV	2026 line	Risk	Status
Termarr Johnson 2B	AAA	45	.336/.319, 406 PA	0.53	First year IL Plan: protect
Derek Diamond SIRP	AAA	40	2.48 ERA, 58 IP	0.46	Prev. eligible Plan: protect
Keiner Delgado SS	AA	40	.347/.374, 528 PA	0.25	Prev. eligible Plan: protect
Cy Nielson SIRP	AAA	35+	4.94 ERA, 71 IP	0.23	Prev. eligible
Brandon Neeck LHP	AAA	—	2.33 ERA, 70 IP	0.21	Prev. eligible
Justin Meis RHP	AAA	—	4.13 ERA, 70 IP	0.21	Prev. eligible
Landon Tomkins RHP	AAA	—	4.91 ERA, 73 IP (AA)	0.21	First year
Michael Walsh RHP	AAA	—	4.60 ERA, 47 IP (AA)	0.21	Prev. eligible
Nick Dombkowski LHP	AAA	—	5.22 ERA, 112 IP	0.21	Prev. eligible
Jesus Castillo SS	AAA	—	.333/.345, 390 PA	0.17	Prev. eligible
Mike Jarvis OF	AAA	—	.282/.237, 134 PA	0.17	Prev. eligible
Mitch Jebb OF	AAA	—	.352/.432, 341 PA	0.17	First year

54 eligible, 33 of them at Double-A or Triple-A; 14 for the first time, and 5 whose first year our data can’t place. Risk is the plan’s rough pick risk (level, role and grade; ordered, not calibrated). “Plan: protect” marks the Winter Plan’s picks, due Nov 17. The 2026 line is OBP/SLG for hitters and ERA for pitchers over his whole 2026 season (levels combined), as /prospects reads it; when he played fewer than 60 PA or batters faced at today’s level, the level where most of it came is in parentheses. 15 likely minor-league free agents are left out: they leave after the World Series unless re-signed. Signing date not in our data: Jhonny Severino (first exposed Dec 2025–27), Jeter Martinez (first exposed Dec 2026–28).

39Oct 2138≈ Nov 537before Nov 1740Nov 1739by Dec 1

40-man at each deadline, in transaction order: 41 listed today, 2 of them on the 60-day IL; ≈ Nov 5: 60-day IL players count again; pending free agents come off; before Nov 17: release Henry Davis early, so the protections fit; Nov 17: Rule 5 protection filed; by Dec 1: acquire Isaac Paredes for Jacob Gonzalez + Jhostynxon Garcia. At 40 when the Rule 5 protections are filed, a signing before then needs a release first.

NL Central · 2026

Team	W–L	GB	Run diff
MIL	103–59	—	+214
CHC	89–73	14.0	+147
PIT	82–80	21.0	+28
STL	77–85	26.0	−29
CIN	75–87	28.0	−160