Who should play, and in what order, against righties and lefties?
vs. Right-handed pitching
Batting order · projected wOBA vs. RHP (bar from .260 to .400; tick = league)
- 1 Isaac Paredes3B · bats R .344
- 2 Esmerlyn ValdezRF · bats R .346
- 3 Oneil CruzCF · bats L .344
- 4 Spencer HorwitzDH · bats L .341
- 5 Ryan O'Hearn1B · bats L .348
- 6 Bryan ReynoldsLF · bats both .336
- 7 Rafael Flores Jr.C · bats R .319
- 8 Konnor GriffinSS · bats R .305
- 9 Nick Gonzales2B · bats R .315
Bench: Endy Rodríguezmedical, Jake Mangum, Jared Triolo, Ronny Simon
The only bench catcher (Endy Rodríguez) ended 2026 on the 60-day IL; the plan assumes he is ready for spring.
vs. Left-handed pitching
Batting order · projected wOBA vs. LHP (bar from .260 to .400; tick = league)
- 1 Isaac Paredes3B · bats R .353
- 2 Esmerlyn ValdezRF · bats R .363
- 3 Bryan ReynoldsLF · bats both .343
- 4 Rafael Flores Jr.C · bats R .332
- 5 Nick Gonzales2B · bats R .322
- 6 Konnor GriffinSS · bats R .318
- 7 Ryan O'Hearn1B · bats L .315
- 8 Oneil CruzCF · bats L .310
- 9 Spencer HorwitzDH · bats L .305
Bench: Endy Rodríguezmedical, Jake Mangum, Jared Triolo, Ronny Simon
The only bench catcher (Endy Rodríguez) ended 2026 on the 60-day IL; the plan assumes he is ready for spring.
Who adds the most runs?
Outside bats (Roster Builder candidates with 150+ MLB PA since 2024) in place of the weakest bat at a spot they can take: DH, their own position, or a corner outfield spot. Full season: both lineups, each against the pitchers it really faces. Lefty starts: the platoon use alone. Offense only: the fielding difference at the spot isn’t priced (the Roster Builder’s wins count it). A trade’s cost includes the prospects his club would want, from the farm as it stands after the Winter Plan (the Roster Builder’s plan view). Runs include PNC Park against his home parks.
| Hitter | Path | 2027 cost | 40-man | wOBA vs L / R | Δ R/G vs LHP | PNC | Runs, full season | Runs per $M | Runs, lefty starts | Replaces |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LowePIT (FA) · bats L | Re-sign · cautionthe QO brief: let him go above $13.5M a year | 3 yr × $30.8M | +1 | .313 / .359429 / 1195 PA | −0.02 | +1.7 | +21 | 0.54 | +3 | Nick Gonzales2B |
| Riley GreeneDET · bats L | Tradepossible | $9.3M+ Dotel* (45), Sanford (45+) | 0 | .327 / .364534 / 1283 PA | +0.08 | +4.5 | +20 | 0.49 | +6 | Spencer HorwitzDH |
| CJ AbramsWSH · bats L | Tradelikelycosts the plan: Duce Gourson is the Winter Plan's 2028 third-base successor | $8.8M+ Gourson (45), Johnson* (45) | 0 | .313 / .346593 / 1285 PA | −0.02 | +0.7 | +19 | 0.50 | +3 | Konnor GriffinSS |
| Jeremy PeñaHOU · bats R | Tradepossible | $18.2M+ Callihan* (35+), Johnson* (45) | −1 | .342 / .336382 / 1281 PA | +0.09 | −1.7† | +16 | 0.47 | +5 | Konnor GriffinSS |
| Jake BauersMIL (FA) · bats L | Free agent · caution | 2 yr × $17.7M | +1 | .334 / .351209 / 916 PA | +0.11 | +3.2 | +16 | 0.88 | +6 | Spencer HorwitzDH |
| Randy ArozarenaSEA (FA) · bats R | Free agent · caution | 3 yr × $32.3M | +1 | .357 / .343578 / 1440 PA | +0.20 | +2.9 | +15 | 0.39 | +8 | Spencer HorwitzDH |
| Seiya SuzukiCHC (FA) · bats R | Free agent · caution | 4 yr × $31.3M | +1 | .364 / .349483 / 1370 PA | +0.22 | −1.6† | +14 | 0.38 | +8 | Spencer HorwitzDH |
| Alec BurlesonSTL · bats L | Tradepossible | $6.1M+ Delgado* (40), Johnson* (45) | −1 | .301 / .360471 / 1323 PA | −0.03 | +5.4 | +12 | 0.48 | +2 | Spencer HorwitzDH |
| Griffin ConineMIA · bats L | Tradepossible | $780K+ Barco* (45), Johnson* (45) | −1 | .321 / .354110 / 383 PA | +0.06 | +1.5 | +12 | 0.49 | +3 | Spencer HorwitzDH |
| Dominic CanzoneSEA · bats L | Tradepossible | $3.9M+ Barco* (45), Sanford (45+) | 0 | .322 / .344225 / 759 PA | +0.06 | +6.9 | +11 | 0.37 | +4 | Spencer HorwitzDH |
| Kyle StowersMIA · bats L | Tradepossible | $4.0M+ Ruiz (none yet, 2026 #44 pick), Johnson* (45) | 0 | .317 / .354257 / 908 PA | +0.04 | +1.7 | +11 | 0.37 | +3 | Spencer HorwitzDH |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY (FA) · bats L | Free agent · caution | 4 yr × $32.6M | +1 | .308 / .339513 / 1153 PA | −0.04 | −0.3 | +10 | 0.26 | 0 | Nick Gonzales2B |
40-man: the spots the move uses (+1 for him, −1 for each 40-man player sent). Runs per $M: full-season runs per $1M of 2027 salary plus any one-off talent cost (the prospects sent, or the draft pick a qualifying offer or a re-signing gives up), the Winter Plan’s wins-per-$10M basis; later seasons of a multi-year deal aren’t in it.PNC: runs a full season from playing at PNC Park instead of his home parks († a right-handed pull-air hitter). The batting rates themselves aren’t park-adjusted, so an outside bat carries his home parks until this column moves him to PNC.
Takeaways
No lefty problem to spend on; the lineup card won’t move much either.
The best possible order adds 0.7 runs a season. The best added bat, Riley Greene (bats left), adds about 20 runs over a full season in place of Spencer Horwitz, 6 of them in lefty starts: a general upgrade more than a platoon fix. Brandon Lowe would add more (+21 runs), but at his $30.8M market the Winter Plan lets him go above $13.5M a year (the QO brief), so he isn’t the pick here. Pittsburgh went 18–33 against left-handed starters in 2026 and 64–47 against right-handers; records against lefty starters barely repeat from year to year (see the Season Review), so the projection above, not the record, is the read. In 2026 the club hit .701 OPS against lefty starters (MLB .711). Against left-handed pitching the 2027 lineup projects to 4.91 runs per game, against 4.74 for the 2026 club brought back and 4.38 for a league-average lineup: Isaac Paredes (.353 projected wOBA vs. LHP) in for Brandon Lowe (.313), +0.17 (each swapped into the 2026 nine alone).
Platoon only where it clears the bar.
No bench bat beats a starter against lefties by enough to platoon. Endy Rodríguezmedical for Spencer Horwitz at DH would add 1.3 runs a season, but he has only 40 MLB PA against lefties (under 100), so the edge would come from his starting point, not his record: an unproven split, so the starter stays.
Hit the best hitters near the top; the rest is noise.
Against right-handers the best hitter (Ryan O'Hearn) bats 5th and the weakest (Konnor Griffin) 8th; the top five are within .007 wOBA, so their order among themselves barely matters.
The Winter Plan’s branches, at the plate
Each branch’s nine run the same way. Season runs count both lineups against the pitchers they face; offense only (the plan’s wins also count defense).
| Branch | 2B | 3B | R/G vs RHP | R/G vs LHP | Runs a season | vs. the plan | Platoon vs LHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lowe accepts the QO · Isaac Paredes at third | Brandon Lowe | Isaac Paredes | 5.27 | 4.89 | 834 | +21 | toss-up: Endy Rodríguez for Spencer Horwitz (DH, +1.3), Nick Gonzales for Konnor Griffin (SS, +1.0) |
| Winter Plan: Lowe leaves · Isaac Paredes at third | Nick Gonzales | Isaac Paredes | 5.08 | 4.91 | 813 | 0 | toss-up: Endy Rodríguez for Spencer Horwitz (DH, +1.3) |
| Lowe accepts the QO · third base in-house | Nick Gonzales | Brandon Lowe | 5.14 | 4.74 | 811 | −2 | toss-up: Endy Rodríguez for Spencer Horwitz (DH, +1.3) |
| Lowe leaves · third base in-house | Nick Gonzales | Jared Triolo | 4.86 | 4.71 | 779 | −34 | toss-up: Endy Rodríguez for Spencer Horwitz (DH, +1.3) |
Ten runs is about a win. The QO brief weighs these runs against the money and the defense. Trading Keller or keeping him doesn’t change the hitters, so each row stands for both Keller branches (the Winter Plan’s row is its own).
Platoon splits, regressed
Projected wOBA by pitcher hand. Splits are regressed toward the league platoon effect for each batting side, with ballast measured from 2024–26: 1,200 PA against lefties for left-handed batters, 2,350 for right-handed, 350 for switch hitters. AAA: a thin MLB record, so his starting point is mostly his Triple-A translation (its weight is half at 300 weighted MLB PA and keeps falling as the record grows).
| Hitter | Pos | Bats | vs RHP | PA vs R | vs LHP | PA vs L | Split |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Hearn | 1B | L | .348 | 1184 | .315 | 293 | −.034 |
| Esmerlyn ValdezAAA | RF | R | .346 | 174 | .363 | 111 | +.017 |
| Oneil Cruz | CF | L | .344 | 1128 | .310 | 414 | −.034 |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | R | .344 | 1342 | .353 | 387 | +.009 |
| Spencer Horwitz | DH | L | .341 | 1014 | .305 | 222 | −.035 |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | S | .336 | 1426 | .343 | 607 | +.007 |
| Endy RodríguezmedicalAAA | Bench | S | .334 | 174 | .317 | 40 | −.017 |
| Rafael Flores Jr.AAA | C | R | .319 | 91 | .332 | 86 | +.013 |
| Nick Gonzales | 2B | R | .315 | 1001 | .322 | 390 | +.007 |
| Jake Mangum | Bench | S | .310 | 620 | .301 | 266 | −.010 |
| Konnor Griffin | SS | R | .305 | 245 | .318 | 91 | +.013 |
| Ronny SimonAAA | Bench | S | .299 | 118 | .299 | 36 | .000 |
| Jared Triolo | Bench | R | .291 | 788 | .307 | 384 | +.015 |
Run model calibrated so a league-average lineup, with 2026’s real mix of batter and pitcher hands (30% of plate appearances against lefties), scores the 2026 MLB average of 4.48 runs per game (scale 1.09×: the model leaves out stolen bases, wild pitches and some extra-base running). Lefty starts are scored as they’re played: 66% of their plate appearances come against lefties, the rest against right-handed relievers. Totals assume the nine play every inning at full health (no bench, injury or call-up plate appearances) and use this page’s own projection, so they run above the Winter Plan’s team projection: compare lineups to each other and to a league-average lineup, not to last year’s team total. Over a season that is about +88 runs against a league-average lineup, the nine playing every inning on this page’s 2024–26 rates. The Winter Plan’s 81.7 wins rest on its Marcel+ projections, which are whole-player WAR and don’t separate batting from fielding and position, so the two can’t yet be bridged run for run: this page ranks lineups and platoons; the plan’s wins are the team number. Forecast blind (2026 from 2024–25 only, each club’s actual 2026 playing time, no Triple-A translations), the same rates and run model missed 30 clubs’ runs per game by 0.37 (root-mean-square; r = 0.19, bias −0.01): better than last season’s runs per game (0.48) but worse than calling every club league-average (0.32). Team wOBA missed by .018 against lefties and .011 against righties, and the platoon split by .017 (r = 0.39). So the model sorts lineups only loosely: read its run totals as rough, and the gaps between nearby rows as noise.