Players / Player profile
AZ · 3B

Nolan Arenado

Age 35 B/T R/R 6′2″, 215 lb USA MLB debut 2013
40-man
  • Arizona’s roster as it stands starts at 3B · 394 PA · 1.1 WAR in the role
  • Trade read Available at a price: AZ 51% playoff odds; control through 2027.
xwOBA .300 wOBA .354
2026 fWAR 3.5
Projected 2027 WAR 1.0 at 396 PA · 1.1 in his 2027 role

Hitting · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 596 PA

xwOBA .300 xwOBA: .300, 24th percentile
Swing decisions −0.39 Swing decisions: −0.39, 29th percentile
Contact value −0.36 Contact value: −0.36, 33rd percentile
Bat speed 71.4 Bat speed: 71.4, 40th percentile
Squared-up / swing 21% Squared-up / swing: 21%, 35th percentile
Blasts / swing 5% Blasts / swing: 5%, 21st percentile
EV90 102.0 EV90: 102.0, 22nd percentile
Barrel % 7.0% Barrel %: 7.0%, 43rd percentile
Chase % 31.9% Chase %: 31.9%, 35th percentile
Zone contact 83.2% Zone contact: 83.2%, 39th percentile
Strikeout % 20.1% Strikeout %: 20.1%, 58th percentile
Walk % 8.4% Walk %: 8.4%, 45th percentile

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vsPAwOBAxwOBAK%BB%ChaseDecisionsContact
LHP155.386.31719%10%31%−0.10+0.22
RHP441.343.29420%8%32%−0.50−0.59
Attack angle
12.9° (60% in 5–20°)
Attack direction
−12.9°
Swing length
8.4 ft
Fast-swing rate
14%
Pull-air %
26.0%
Hard-hit %
31.3%
Slash · wRC+
.255/.331/.475 · 120

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

+2.8+1.5+0.5+3.7−0.4+0.5−1.1+2.2+1.9−0.5+0.7−0.7+5.5+0.6−0.1−0.3+5.4+0.7−1.1−0.8−0.9−0.2+1.2−2.9−0.8RHB

Does the most damage middle-middle (+5.5 vs. league per 100; 3.0 standard errors above average on 162 pitches).

Weakest down and away (−1.1), but only 0.6 standard errors from average on 131 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average RHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 2,161 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Arenado: bat path, contact quality and approach

SimilarityPlayerxwOBA’26 WAR’27 proj2027
61Willy Adames SF · ’95.2960.41.8Signed $31.1M
46Cedric Mullins TB · ’94.2731.10.9Free agent
46Brandon Valenzuela TOR · ’00.3142.12.0Pre-arb
44Luis Campusano SD · ’98.3271.80.9Arb
43Francisco Lindor NYM · ’93.3312.23.2Signed $34.1M

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth
3B +3.1 +5.6
2B +1.1prior +0.6
1B +8.6prior −6.9
Outs Above Average by position
SeasonPosOAARangeArm, DPRunsBatters
20263B+2+2+0.4+2.45,193
20253B+3+2+0.2+2.23,744
20243B+10+7−0.2+6.85,308
20233B+6+4+1.3+5.34,782

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at 3B)
2025 · 3B2026 · 3B In (charging) 0+7Back +10Toward 3B line +10Toward 1B line +1−4vs. RHH +4+3vs. LHH −1−1

At 3B in 2026, the biggest loss came toward 1B line (−4 outs): a coaching target.

Tools (percentile; arm among 3Bs)
Arm at 3B 83.0 mph · 49th
Sprint speed 25.1 ft/s · 7th
Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)
SeasonZoneBallsOuts vs. exp.
20263B355+9.9
20253B315+7.6
20243B419+19.0

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.0 WAR Guaranteed $15.0M
2028 0.2 WAR Free agent
2029 −0.4 WAR Free agent
2030 −1.1 WAR Free agent

Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevelLevelTeamAgeGPA / IPPA / IP ·Line
2025AAAASpringfield Cardinals34414 PA 14 PA · .077/.143/.077 · 0 HR · 21.4% K · 0.0% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 71% 10/14 won · +0.2 runs
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