Clay Holmes
- The Cubs’ roster as it stands #3 starter · 117 IP · 1.3 WAR in the role
- Injured list 2026: (Aug 3–Aug 8)
- Trade read Available at a price: CHC 44% playoff odds; control through 2027.
Pitching · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 1,613 pitches
Arsenal & Pitch Lab
Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch
| Pitch | Use | Velo | IVB | HB | Stuff | Loc | Whiff | xRV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker49% use | 49% | 93.1 | 2.2 | +16.1 | 97 | 92 | 12% | −0.53 |
| Sweeper18% use | 18% | 81.2 | −3.8 | −16.8 | 105 | 91 | 29% | +1.41 |
| Changeup14% use | 14% | 88.0 | −1.4 | +9.0 | 90 | 103 | 32% | +1.00 |
| Cutter11% use | 11% | 86.0 | −1.3 | −1.6 | 96 | 70 | 40% | −1.28 |
| Curveball7% use | 7% | 81.1 | −14.4 | −10.1 | 96 | 98 | 28% | +1.00 |
Cutter grades 96 with below-average expected results; his sweeper grades 105. The best case is against righties: the sweeper is worth +1.1 runs per 100 pitches more, 1.3 standard errors (136 and 116 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.
Built from his own fastball (93.1 mph) plus the typical shape 15 pitchers with his slot (39°) throw: a splitter around 85.0 mph, −10.4″ rise, +19.4″ arm-side. On the same model it grades +34 against his changeup, the pitch with the same job (+22 to +55 across the production and three cross-fit models), about 124 on his changeup’s scale; the comps’ own splitters grade 94 at the median, so that sits above 100% of them. That would out-grade 100% of the comps’ real pitches, more likely a result of how the pitch was built than of the pitch, so it isn’t queued.
Most similar pitchers
Pitches like Holmes: same hand, shape, slot and mix
| Similarity | Player | Stuff | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | JR Ritchie ATL · ’03 | 95 | −0.3 | 0.2 | — |
| 43 | Nolan McLean NYM · ’01 | 105 | 3.5 | 3.1 | Pre-arb |
| 43 | Landen Roupp SF · ’98 | 97 | 2.5 | 2.0 | Pre-arb |
| 40 | Logan Webb SF · ’96 | 94 | 3.1 | 3.3 | Signed $23.0M |
| 40 | Sonny Gray BOS · ’89 | 95 | 3.4 | 1.7 | Free agent |
Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.
Pitch locations · 2026
Where each pitch finishes, by batter side
Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
Minor leagues
MLB Stats API · public box-score data
| SeasonLevel | Level | Team | Age | G | PA / IP | PA / IP ·Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026A | A | St. Lucie Mets | 33 | 1 | 4 IP | 4 IP · 0.00 ERA · 20.0% K · 13.3% BB |
| 2026A+ | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 33 | 1 | 5.1 IP | 5.1 IP · 5.06 ERA · 13.0% K · 0.0% BB |
| 2026AAA | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 33 | 1 | 2.1 IP | 2.1 IP · 7.71 ERA · 16.7% K · 16.7% BB |