Brandon Lowe
- Free agent est. 3 yr × $30.8M ($22M–$48M) · +1.8 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as its 2B starter
1 caution
- Big walk year: 4.9 WAR in 2026 against a 2.5-WAR projection. With the walk year at his projection the model would price him at $25.1M a year, not $30.8M. Last winter's 27 deals after such seasons came in about 8% under the estimate on average (± 13%): no clear premium or discount beyond what the model already pays.
- PNC Park Pittsburgh’s home park: +2.3 runs per 600 PA against an average park (+0.23 wins over 583 PA; his WAR leaves this out); home runs ×1.01 (×0.99 for left-handed hitters as a group). Park Fit →
This winter
What the Winter Plan does with Lowe: its decisions feed, the dated moves and the briefs
Leaves as a free agent after the World Series if he declines the qualifying offer.
- ≈ Nov 5 Pending free agents come off the 40-man: Kirby Yates, Gregory Soto, Brandon LoweCounted from today's 40-man; the plan's starting roster already leaves them out.
Qualifying offer (≈ Nov 1–5): $23.15M for one year. His answer comes ≈ Nov 11–15. The plan expects him to decline: the Free-Agent Board prices him at 3 yr × $30.8M ($22M–$48M a year).
| If he | 2B | 2027 wins | Playoff odds | 2027 payroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| declines (plan) | Nick Gonzales | 81.7 70–94 | 44% | $138.6M |
| accepts | Brandon Lowe | 83.5 71–96 | 51% | $160.9M |
Wins with an 80% range; Isaac Paredes plays third either way. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Pittsburgh gets a compensation pick worth about $8.6M net of its signing bonus (the current CBA as Keystone reads it; the new CBA could change it). If he accepts, he starts at 2B · 572 PA · 2.9 WAR in the role. Against the owners’ proposed floor of $171.2M (a proposal, not a rule), payroll on their terms is $137.2M if he declines, $34.0M under it, and $159.3M if he accepts, $11.9M under it.
Re-signing him at his market price. Current rules: His market estimate ($30.8M a year) is above the ceiling: let him go. Owners’ proposed terms: His price on those terms ($27.1M) sits between $11.5M (the ceiling at face value, if the floor money has other good uses) and $46.6M (the ceiling if it has none): worth it only if the floor money has no better use. It has one: on this roster Jack Flaherty adds 0.98 wins per $10M of 2027 payroll and Lowe re-signed 0.46, counting the comp pick a re-sign gives up (today's prices; the owners' terms scale both alike). Let him go.
- Qualifying offer: Brandon Lowedue ≈ Nov 1–5 · medium confidence
Extend the $23.15M qualifying offer by ≈ Nov 5. Expect him to decline: his market estimate ($30.8M a year for 3 years) beats the offer by $7.6M a year, and 12 of 14 comparable deals cleared it (86%); at the low end of his range ($21.8M a year) he could accept. If he declines, take the pick (about $8.6M net of his bonus); second base then goes to Nick Gonzales. Don't re-sign him above $13.5M a year under today's rules; his market estimate is $30.8M.
Development · trends & plan
Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.
Trends · MLB
Hitting · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 653 PA
Platoon splits · swing path
By pitcher handedness
| vs | PA | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Chase | Decisions | Contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHP | 211 | .290 | .266 | 37% | 6% | 41% | −1.60 | +0.43 |
| RHP | 442 | .391 | .362 | 25% | 11% | 31% | +0.67 | +1.36 |
- Attack angle
- 16.2° (47% in 5–20°)
- Attack direction
- −3.8°
- Swing length
- 7.1 ft
- Fast-swing rate
- 35%
- Pull-air %
- 29.3%
- Hard-hit %
- 45.5%
- Slash · wRC+
- .260/.331/.493 · 121
Zone map · 2026
Where he does damage, and where to pitch him
Does the most damage middle-in (+5.4 vs. league per 100; 2.5 standard errors on 94 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).
Weakest down and away (−1.2), but only 0.6 standard errors from average on 135 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.
Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 2,380 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).
Most similar hitters
Swings like Lowe: bat path, contact quality and approach
| Similarity | Player | xwOBA | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC · ’02 | .375 | 10.6 | 6.7 | Signed $10.8M |
| 58 | Dalton Rushing LAD · ’01 | .336 | 1.1 | 1.0 | Pre-arb |
| 58 | Andrés Chaparro WSH · ’99 | .342 | 1.0 | 0.5 | Pre-arb |
| 57 | Tyler O'Neill BAL · ’95 | .307 | 0.5 | 0.5 | Signed $16.5M |
| 54 | Zach Neto LAA · ’01 | .317 | 3.9 | 3.4 | Arb |
Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.
Fielding
2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.
| Season | Pos | OAA | Range | Arm, DP | Runs | Batters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2B | +15 | +11 | +1.2 | +12.2 | 5,078 |
| 2025 | 1B | 0 | 0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | 76 |
| 2025 | 2B | −14 | −10 | +0.6 | −9.4 | 4,217 |
| 2024 | 1B | 0 | 0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | 407 |
| 2024 | 2B | 0 | 0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | 1,948 |
| 2023 | 2B | +4 | +3 | −1.7 | +1.3 | 3,571 |
Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.
| Season | Zone | Balls | Outs vs. exp. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2B | 515 | +17.1 |
| 2025 | 2B | 387 | −15.4 |
| 2024 | 2B | 158 | −9.4 |
The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
A pending free agent: no club controls his 2027; the qualifying offer is $23.15M for 2027 if he accepts. Contract Studio →
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant