David Bednar
- Free agent est. 2 yr × $16.9M ($12M–$26M) · +0.9 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan in the bullpen
1 caution
- Priced beyond last winter's market: his projection (1.23 WAR) is above any reliever signed then (1.21), so the price extrapolates the model's curve and is less certain.
Pitching · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 1,154 pitches
Arsenal & Pitch Lab
Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch
| Pitch | Use | Velo | IVB | HB | Stuff | Loc | Whiff | xRV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Splitter41% use | 41% | 90.8 | 3.3 | +8.9 | 108 | 106 | 35% | +2.43 |
| Four-seam41% use | 41% | 96.1 | 18.0 | +8.8 | 104 | 98 | 23% | +0.72 |
| Curveball18% use | 18% | 77.0 | −6.5 | −7.7 | 94 | 107 | 39% | +0.14 |
Built from his own fastball (96.1 mph) plus the typical shape 25 pitchers with his slot (40°) throw: a sweeper around 84.2 mph, 4.1″ rise, −12.6″ arm-side. On the same model it grades +27 against his curveball, the pitch with the same job (+20 to +31 across the production and three cross-fit models), about 121 on his curveball’s scale; the comps’ own sweepers grade 108 at the median, so that sits above 96% of them. That would out-grade 96% of the comps’ real pitches, more likely a result of how the pitch was built than of the pitch, so it isn’t queued.
Most similar pitchers
Pitches like Bednar: same hand, shape, slot and mix
| Similarity | Player | Stuff | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | Drew Anderson DET · ’94 | 101 | 0.7 | 0.3 | Free agent |
| 32 | Kyle Finnegan DET · ’91 | 106 | −0.8 | 0.0 | Signed $8.0M |
| 31 | Chase Silseth TEX · ’00 | 98 | 0.4 | 0.3 | Pre-arb |
| 29 | Luis Medina ATH · ’99 | 103 | 0.9 | 0.6 | Arb |
| 29 | Kodai Senga NYM · ’93 | 98 | −0.6 | 0.1 | Signed $14.0M |
Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.
Pitch locations · 2026
Where each pitch finishes, by batter side
Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
A pending free agent: no club controls his 2027. Contract Studio →
Minor leagues
MLB Stats API · public box-score data
| SeasonLevel | Level | Team | Age | G | PA / IP | PA / IP ·Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025AAA | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 30 | 5 | 5 IP | 5 IP · 0.00 ERA · 43.8% K · 0.0% BB |