Isaac Paredes
- Houston’s roster as it stands starts at 3B · 562 PA · 3.3 WAR in the role
- Winter Plan acquires him: starts at 3B · 562 PA · 3.3 WAR in the role plan →
- Trade read Available at a price: HOU 43% playoff odds; control through 2027.His 2027 is a $13.35M club option HOU decides about five days after the World Series: exercised, he’s a trade target; declined, he still has under six years of service (about 5 years, 160 days after 2026), so he goes to arbitration and stays HOU’s unless he’s non-tendered by Nov 20.
- PNC Park Pittsburgh’s home park: −3.6 runs per 600 PA against an average park (−0.35 wins over 562 PA; his WAR leaves this out); home runs ×0.68 (×0.77 for right-handed hitters as a group). Pulls 32% of his batted balls in the air, top quarter of right-handed hitters (the most). Park Fit →
This winter
The Winter Plan acquires Paredes: the trade, the contract and its conditions
The plan acquires him from Houston by trade, under control through 2027: starts at 3B · 562 PA · 3.3 WAR in the role.
- ≈ Nov 1–Dec 1 Acquire Isaac Paredes (HOU) for Jacob Gonzalez (FV 35+) + Jhostynxon Garcia (FV 45)After HOU's option call (≈ Nov 1–5), before the CBA expires. HOU holds a $13.35M club option on him for 2027.
Contract (RosterResource): 1 yr, $9.35M (2026), 2027 club option; converts to mutual option with top 10 MVP finish.
RosterResource notes the option “converts to mutual option with top 10 MVP finish”. The 2026 MVP vote isn't in our data: confirm the option is still HOU's alone before counting on the trade.
If HOU declines it, he has about 5 years, 160 days of service, under six: he stays under HOU's control through arbitration and reaches free agency only if non-tendered (≈ Nov 20). Keystone's reading of the current CBA; our data can't confirm it.
Pittsburgh's qualifying offer and HOU's option call fall in the same window (≈ Nov 1–5); Lowe answers about Nov 11–15. Isaac Paredes adds +2.6 wins if Lowe leaves and +2.6 if he stays, so the trade needn't wait for his answer; it must close before the CBA expires.
- Fix third basedue Dec 1 · medium confidence
Acquire Isaac Paredes (HOU) for Jacob Gonzalez and Jhostynxon Garcia once Houston exercises his $13.35M option (≈ Nov 1–5), and close before Dec 1: +2.6 wins, taking the plan to 81.7 (80% range 70–94) and 44% playoff odds, for $12.6M of 2027 payroll and $16.4M of prospect value. His value is the bat; his glove rates below Jared Triolo's. On price alone the trade is short of the market price of a win (0.90 wins per $10M against 1.11); the case is that nothing else gets its wins: the next option without a draft-pick cost adds 1.0 fewer. He is under control only through 2027: third base reopens for 2028.
Hitting · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 658 PA
Platoon splits · swing path
By pitcher handedness
| vs | PA | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Chase | Decisions | Contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHP | 158 | .351 | .328 | 16% | 8% | 32% | +0.24 | +0.26 |
| RHP | 500 | .365 | .320 | 12% | 11% | 26% | +0.89 | −0.28 |
- Attack angle
- 15.0° (53% in 5–20°)
- Attack direction
- −12.7°
- Swing length
- 7.8 ft
- Fast-swing rate
- 6%
- Pull-air %
- 30.6%
- Hard-hit %
- 29.4%
- Slash · wRC+
- .262/.360/.447 · 130
Zone map · 2026
Where he does damage, and where to pitch him
Does the most damage down and away (+2.9 vs. league per 100; 1.6 standard errors on 167 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).
Weakest middle-in (−3.9), but only 1.9 standard errors from average on 110 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.
Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average RHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 2,658 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).
Most similar hitters
Swings like Paredes: bat path, contact quality and approach
| Similarity | Player | xwOBA | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | Marcus Semien NYM · ’90 | .301 | −0.5 | 0.4 | Signed $26.0M |
| 41 | Nick Sogard BOS · ’97 | .315 | 1.2 | 0.9 | Pre-arb |
| 39 | Cody Bellinger NYY · ’95 | .336 | 3.5 | 2.7 | Signed $42.5M |
| 35 | Alex Bregman CHC · ’94 | .328 | 5.5 | 3.5 | Signed $35.0M |
| 33 | José Ramírez CLE · ’92 | .326 | 2.2 | 2.7 | Signed $25.0M |
Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.
Fielding
2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.
| Season | Pos | OAA | Range | Arm, DP | Runs | Batters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2B | +1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 117 |
| 2026 | 1B | 0 | 0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | 229 |
| 2026 | 3B | −3 | −2 | +1.0 | −1.0 | 5,052 |
| 2025 | 3B | −4 | −3 | +0.3 | −2.7 | 3,185 |
| 2024 | 1B | 0 | 0 | +1.1 | +1.1 | 499 |
| 2024 | 3B | −2 | −1 | +0.3 | −0.7 | 4,682 |
| 2023 | SS | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36 |
| 2023 | 2B | 0 | 0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | 425 |
| 2023 | 1B | 0 | 0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | 503 |
| 2023 | 3B | 0 | 0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | 3,840 |
Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.
At 3B in 2026, the biggest loss came in (charging) (−3 outs): a coaching target.
Tools (percentile; arm among 3Bs)| Season | Zone | Balls | Outs vs. exp. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3B | 326 | −20.7 |
| 2025 | 3B | 261 | −4.2 |
| 2024 | 3B | 349 | +4.1 |
The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant