TB · RF

Victor Mesa Jr.

Age 25 B/T L/L 5′11″, 195 lb Cuba MLB debut 2025

40-man FV 40 · #42 in org

Tampa Bay’s roster as it stands starts at RF · 336 PA · 2.4 WAR in the role
Injured list 2026: Left hamstring strain (Aug 19–Sep 1)
Trade read Unlikely to be traded: Young, controllable regular (age 25, control through 2032): the kind of player clubs build around.

xwOBA .331 wOBA .355

2026 fWAR 2.6

Projected 2027 WAR 2.3 at 335 PA · 2.4 in his 2027 role

Hitting · 2026

262 PA: percentiles need 300+, so values only

xwOBA .331

Swing decisions −0.12

Contact value −0.07

Bat speed 73.7

Squared-up / swing 20%

Blasts / swing 8%

EV90 104.6

Barrel % 10.8%

Chase % 34.9%

Zone contact 80.6%

Strikeout % 20.2%

Walk % 8.8%

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vs	PA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Chase	Decisions	Contact
LHP	66	.384	.305	14%	8%	33%	+0.12	−0.88
RHP	196	.346	.340	22%	9%	35%	−0.19	+0.15

Attack angle: 9.9° (65% in 5–20°)
Attack direction: −1.9°
Swing length: 7.9 ft
Fast-swing rate: 35%
Pull-air %: 16.8%
Hard-hit %: 42.2%
Slash · wRC+: .260/.327/.498 · 128

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

Does the most damage up over the middle (+2.9 vs. league per 100; 1.3 standard errors on 47 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest middle-away (−1.1), but only 0.5 standard errors from average on 48 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 860 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Mesa: bat path, contact quality and approach

Similarity	Player	xwOBA	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
69	Ty France SD · ’94	.328	3.6	1.0	Free agent
64	Dylan Crews WSH · ’02	.318	0.9	0.9	Pre-arb
63	Manny Machado SD · ’92	.329	2.4	1.7	Signed $39.1M
62	Josh Bell MIN · ’92	.336	0.7	−0.4	Free agent
61	Jackson Merrill SD · ’03	.348	4.2	4.1	Signed $7.1M

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth

RF +7.0 −0.5

1B +7.5prior −8.0

LF +2.2 −8.3

Outs Above Average by position

Season	Pos	OAA	Range	Arm, DP	Runs	Batters
2026	CF	+1	+1	0.0	+1.0	79
2026	LF	−2	−2	+0.1	−1.9	233
2026	RF	+9	+8	+0.6	+8.6	2,090
2025	CF	0	0	−0.2	−0.2	101
2025	LF	0	0	−0.3	−0.3	117
2025	RF	0	0	−0.4	−0.4	187

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at RF)

2025 · RF2026 · RF In (charging) 0+3Back 00Toward 3B line 0+2Toward 1B line +1+2vs. RHH 0+5vs. LHH +1+2

Tools (percentile; arm among RFs)

Arm at RF 93.1 mph · 91st

Sprint speed 28.0 ft/s · 67th

Reaction +5.3 ft · 100th

Burst +2.1 ft · 96th

Route −2.1 ft · 3rd

Catch difficulty (latest season)

Play	Made	Chances	Rate
★★★★★	5	12	42%
★★★★	2	4	50%
★★★	5	6	83%
★★	10	10	100%
★	11	12	92%

Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)

Season	Zone	Balls	Outs vs. exp.
2026	RF	209	+6.2

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 2.3 WAR Pre-arb $780K*

2028 2.4 WAR Pre-arb $803K*

2029 2.4 WAR Arbitration $4.2M*

2030 2.3 WAR Arbitration $8.2M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026A	A	Charleston RiverDogs	24	3	11 PA	11 PA · .500/.545/.800 · 1 HR · 27.3% K · 9.1% BB
2026AAA	AAA	Durham Bulls	24	23	101 PA	101 PA · .307/.396/.557 · 4 HR · 23.8% K · 12.9% BB
2025A	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	23	10	39 PA	39 PA · .222/.282/.250 · 0 HR · 10.3% K · 5.1% BB
2025AAA	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	23	42	171 PA	171 PA · .301/.368/.510 · 7 HR · 16.4% K · 9.9% BB

FanGraphs: FV 40 · ETA 2024. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks.

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 22% 2/9 won · −0.2 runs