Nick Gonzales
- Winter Plan starts at 2B · 535 PA · 1.8 WAR in the role
- PNC Park Pittsburgh’s home park: −0.4 runs per 600 PA against an average park (−0.04 wins over 535 PA; his WAR leaves this out); home runs ×0.72 (×0.77 for right-handed hitters as a group). Park Fit →
This winter
What the Winter Plan does with Gonzales: its decisions feed, the dated moves and the briefs
The plan keeps him: starts at 2B · 535 PA · 1.8 WAR in the role.
- ≈ Dec 1 Nick Gonzales: third base in 2026 → second baseOnce the winter's moves land. Brandon Lowe played second base in 2026 and leaves; Isaac Paredes takes third base.
Depends on Brandon Lowe’s answer (≈ Nov 11–15). If he accepts the qualifying offer, Brandon Lowe plays second and Isaac Paredes third, and Gonzales moves to a utility role · 535 PA (SS 309, 3B 116, 2B 106) · 1.6 WAR in the role. Pittsburgh then projects 83.5 wins (80% range 71–96), 51% playoff odds.
Options left: 1 (Keystone’s estimate).
- Qualifying offer: Brandon Lowedue ≈ Nov 1–5 · medium confidence
Extend the $23.15M qualifying offer by ≈ Nov 5. Expect him to decline: his market estimate ($30.8M a year for 3 years) beats the offer by $7.6M a year, and 12 of 14 comparable deals cleared it (86%); at the low end of his range ($21.8M a year) he could accept. If he declines, take the pick (about $8.6M net of his bonus); second base then goes to Nick Gonzales. Don't re-sign him above $13.5M a year under today's rules; his market estimate is $30.8M.
Development · trends & plan
Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.
Plan for 2027
- 1 Position medium ask Re-establish second base (the Winter Plan moves him from third base)
Statcast outs above average at 2B: +2 in 2024, +3 in 2025, −1 in 2026. At 3B in 2026: −11. Brandon Lowe played second base in 2026 and leaves; Isaac Paredes takes third base. If Brandon Lowe accepts the qualifying offer, the plan keeps Lowe at second and Gonzales moves to the bench, so this goal waits on Lowe’s answer.
Fielding Lab
Each goal is checked when his sample can tell the target from noise: the 2027 All-Star break if it can by then, else season’s end or the sample it needs; if no single season can, it’s a lean. Coach card
Trends · MLB
Hitting · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 606 PA
Platoon splits · swing path
By pitcher handedness
| vs | PA | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Chase | Decisions | Contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHP | 195 | .314 | .299 | 15% | 8% | 31% | +0.61 | −1.31 |
| RHP | 411 | .362 | .339 | 17% | 7% | 31% | −0.22 | +0.61 |
- Attack angle
- 8.9° (47% in 5–20°)
- Attack direction
- +2.1°
- Swing length
- 7.4 ft
- Fast-swing rate
- 11%
- Pull-air %
- 10.0%
- Hard-hit %
- 34.2%
- Slash · wRC+
- .303/.367/.388 · 111
Zone map · 2026
Where he does damage, and where to pitch him
Does the most damage middle-middle (+5.6 vs. league per 100; 3.0 standard errors above average on 153 pitches).
Weakest down and in (−4.1), but only 1.8 standard errors from average on 64 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.
Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average RHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 2,027 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).
Most similar hitters
Swings like Gonzales: bat path, contact quality and approach
| Similarity | Player | xwOBA | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | Jonah Heim ATH · ’95 | .285 | −0.6 | −0.6 | Free agent |
| 69 | Luis Rengifo SD · ’97 | .306 | 0.0 | 0.3 | Free agent |
| 64 | Matt Shaw CHC · ’01 | .306 | 0.7 | 1.2 | Pre-arb |
| 63 | Jared Triolo PIT · ’98 | .288 | 0.3 | 0.6 | Arb |
| 62 | Jake Cronenworth SD · ’94 | .276 | 0.2 | 0.8 | Signed $12.3M |
Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.
Fielding
2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.
| Season | Pos | OAA | Range | Arm, DP | Runs | Batters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SS | +1 | +1 | −0.1 | +0.9 | 142 |
| 2026 | 2B | −1 | −1 | −0.3 | −1.3 | 998 |
| 2026 | 3B | −11 | −8 | −1.3 | −9.3 | 3,838 |
| 2025 | SS | +2 | +1 | −0.3 | +0.7 | 448 |
| 2025 | 2B | +3 | +2 | −1.7 | +0.3 | 3,085 |
| 2024 | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41 |
| 2024 | SS | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 259 |
| 2024 | 2B | +2 | +1 | −0.2 | +0.8 | 3,185 |
| 2023 | SS | 0 | 0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | 254 |
| 2023 | 2B | 0 | 0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | 1,001 |
Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.
At 2B in 2025, the biggest loss came toward 1B line (−2 outs): a coaching target.
Tools (percentile; arm among 2Bs)| Season | Zone | Balls | Outs vs. exp. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3B | 242 | −21.4 |
| 2026 | 2B | 97 | −2.2 |
| 2025 | 2B | 278 | −5.6 |
| 2024 | 2B | 309 | −10.3 |
The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →
Minor leagues
MLB Stats API · public box-score data
| SeasonLevel | Level | Team | Age | G | PA / IP | PA / IP ·Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025AAA | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 26 | 9 | 38 PA | 38 PA · .194/.211/.250 · 0 HR · 28.9% K · 0.0% BB |
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant