AZ · P

Merrill Kelly

Age 38 B/T R/R 6′2″, 210 lb USA MLB debut 2019

40-man

Arizona’s roster as it stands #4 starter · 105 IP · 0.4 WAR in the role
Injured list 2026: Left intercostal nerve irritation (Mar 25–Apr 14)
Trade read Unlikely to be traded: Signed in Dec 2025 (2 yr, $40M (2026-27), 2028 vesting option): clubs rarely move a player they just committed to.

Keystone Stuff 93 20th pct

2026 fWAR −0.1

Projected 2027 WAR 0.4 at 100 IP · 0.4 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,616 pitches

Keystone Stuff 93

Keystone Location 106

Keystone Pitching 94

Run value (xRV) −1.53

Strikeout % 16.1%

Walk % 9.9%

Whiff % 21.6%

Chase % 35.2%

Fastball velo 92.2

Extension 6.1 ft

162.0 IP4.94 ERA5.32 FIP 23° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

RHP · arm angle 23° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Changeup28% use	28%	88.5	0.1	+14.9	99	106	31%	−1.34
Four-seam27% use	27%	92.1	14.4	+9.5	100	101	15%	−2.09
Cutter14% use	14%	91.0	12.5	+4.0	87	103	13%	−1.91
Curveball11% use	11%	82.5	−8.6	−7.5	92	105	22%	−0.13
Slider10% use	10%	86.3	3.8	−1.8	92	109	34%	−1.17
Sinker9% use	9%	92.4	6.5	+16.5	89	94	8%	−1.93

No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Kelly: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
60	Brandon Pfaadt AZ · ’98	96	2.2	2.0	Signed $5.4M
60	Shane Bieber TOR · ’95	94	0.1	0.4	Free agent
53	Davis Martin CWS · ’97	88	2.6	1.8	Pre-arb
52	Michael Soroka AZ · ’97	97	2.7	2.0	Free agent
51	Colin Rea CHC · ’90	96	0.4	0.4	Free agent

Michael Soroka (similarity 52, 2.0 WAR projected for 2027) is a free agent this winter: a similar arsenal available without trading talent, at a free agent’s price. Opportunity Finder →

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Changeup 34%

24% zone

Four-seam 31%

44% zone

Curveball 14%

40% zone

Cutter 13%

43% zone

Sinker 6%

44% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 0.4 WAR Guaranteed $22.0M

2028 0.0 WAR Vesting option $12.0M

2029 −0.2 WAR Free agent

2030 −0.5 WAR Free agent

Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026AAA	AAA	Reno Aces	37	1	5 IP	5 IP · 0.00 ERA · 10.0% K · 10.0% BB