Luke Weaver
- Winter Plan late-inning relief · 60 IP · 0.6 WAR in the role
This winter
What the Winter Plan does with Weaver: its decisions feed, the dated moves and the briefs
The plan keeps him: late-inning relief · 60 IP · 0.6 WAR in the role.
- 2027 starter hook and bullpen rolesdue Spring training · medium confidence
Rotation (Winter Plan): Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller. Two times through for Mitch Keller once his medicals clear. Let Braxton Ashcraft face the order a third time (a toss-up). Let Paul Skenes face it too, pending the review of his velocity drop. Jared Jones: a 22-batter leash (about 81 pitches) after his arm injury, not an open third time; past it, decide by matchup (a toss-up). Give Bubba Chandler development innings on a 22-batter leash (about 82 pitches), once through the top of the order a third time, at about 1.0 ± 1.2 runs against a two-times-through hook (a toss-up); the goal is first two passes at .306 xwOBA or better, not a third-time skill, pending the review of his velocity drop. Ladder: Mason Montgomery and Yohan Ramírez in the late innings (within noise of each other); Evan Sisk and Luke Weaver setting up (within noise of each other). Move Evan Sisk into the leverage ladder. Move Isaac Mattson out of it.
Development · trends & plan
Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.
Plan for 2027
- 1 Diagnose low ask Find the cause of the drop in cutter velocity
Clear declines: cutter velocity 91.5 mph → 90.6 mph (2025 → 2026, MLB). Check video, medical and pitch shape before anyone sets a target.
Development Tracker - 2 New pitch high ask Try a sweeper (~83 mph, 3″ IVB, −15″ HB)
Built from his own fastball plus the median shape of 15 pitchers with his slot and velocity, it grades +8 points against his cutter on the same model (+6 to +14 across the four fits). Uncertain: a new pitch is a season-long project and may not take.
Stuff of new pitch: 99 target 107 ≈0.4 runs/season (if it takes, at 12% usage) Pitch design
Each goal is checked when his sample can tell the target from noise: the 2027 All-Star break if it can by then, else season’s end or the sample it needs; if no single season can, it’s a lean. Coach card
Trends · MLB
Clear changes
- ▼ cutter velocity 91.5 mph → 90.6 mph −1.0 mph 2025 → 2026 · MLB
Pitching · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 903 pitches
Arsenal & Pitch Lab
Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch
| Pitch | Use | Velo | IVB | HB | Stuff | Loc | Whiff | xRV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam51% use | 51% | 95.3 | 18.8 | +6.2 | 105 | 109 | 22% | +1.65 |
| Changeup34% use | 34% | 88.1 | 5.4 | +12.8 | 102 | 115 | 40% | +1.80 |
| Cutter15% use | 15% | 90.6 | 9.6 | −2.8 | 99 | 69 | 30% | −1.60 |
Built from his own fastball (95.3 mph) plus the typical shape 15 pitchers with his slot (47°) throw: a sweeper around 83.2 mph, 2.5″ rise, −15.0″ arm-side. On the same model it grades +8 against his cutter, the pitch it would take usage from (it adds to his fastball, it doesn’t replace it) (+6 to +14 across the production and three cross-fit models), about 107 on his cutter’s scale; the comps’ own sweepers grade 103 at the median, so that sits above 73% of them. A season-long project that may not take: about 0.4 runs a season if it does.
Most similar pitchers
Pitches like Weaver: same hand, shape, slot and mix
| Similarity | Player | Stuff | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | Bradgley Rodriguez SD · ’03 | 103 | 1.6 | 1.1 | Pre-arb |
| 53 | Ryne Stanek STL · ’91 | 102 | 0.0 | −0.1 | Free agent |
| 52 | Bryan Baker TB · ’94 | 115 | 1.3 | 0.7 | Arb |
| 52 | Kyle Finnegan DET · ’91 | 106 | −0.8 | 0.0 | Signed $8.0M |
| 51 | Chase Silseth TEX · ’00 | 98 | 0.4 | 0.3 | Pre-arb |
Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.
Pitch locations · 2026
Where each pitch finishes, by batter side
Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR