Nick Martinez
- Free agent est. 2 yr × $13.7M ($5M–$26M) if his mutual option is declined · +0.8 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as rotation depth
2 cautions
- Holds a $20.0M mutual option for 2027; one side almost always declines.
- Big walk year: 2.9 WAR in 2026 against a 1.5-WAR projection. With the walk year at his projection the model would price him at $11.3M a year, not $13.7M. Last winter's 27 deals after such seasons came in about 8% under the estimate on average (± 13%): no clear premium or discount beyond what the model already pays.
Pitching · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,522 pitches
Arsenal & Pitch Lab
Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch
| Pitch | Use | Velo | IVB | HB | Stuff | Loc | Whiff | xRV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker32% use | 32% | 92.4 | 12.4 | +15.3 | 100 | 118 | 9% | +0.19 |
| Changeup26% use | 26% | 78.3 | 3.1 | +12.3 | 109 | 101 | 31% | +0.92 |
| Cutter22% use | 22% | 89.2 | 11.2 | −1.1 | 91 | 105 | 13% | +0.73 |
| Four-seam13% use | 13% | 92.7 | 16.8 | +6.1 | 86 | 110 | 17% | +0.12 |
| Curveball4% use | 4% | 80.0 | −14.5 | −1.0 | 87 | 95 | 17% | −2.24 |
| Slider4% use | 4% | 85.2 | 3.1 | −1.3 | 94 | 103 | 24% | −2.23 |
No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.
Most similar pitchers
Pitches like Martinez: same hand, shape, slot and mix
| Similarity | Player | Stuff | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | Cal Quantrill TEX · ’95 | 84 | 1.5 | 0.8 | Free agent |
| 34 | Michael Lorenzen TOR · ’92 | 84 | 0.2 | 0.3 | Free agent |
| 27 | Hunter Brown HOU · ’98 | 98 | 1.9 | 2.6 | Arb |
| 27 | Michael Wacha KC · ’91 | 93 | 2.4 | 1.9 | Signed $14.0M |
| 25 | Slade Cecconi CLE · ’99 | 88 | 0.7 | 0.7 | Arb |
Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.
Pitch locations · 2026
Where each pitch finishes, by batter side
Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
His 2027 is a $20.0M mutual option, decided ≈ Nov 1–5 (either side can decline it). The Free-Agent Board expects it declined, so it prices him as a free agent. Contract Studio →