MIN · P

Germán Márquez

Age 31 B/T R/R 6′1″, 230 lb Venezuela MLB debut 2016

Free agent est. 1 yr × $1.2M ($603K–$3M) if his mutual option is declined
1 caution
- Missed most of 2026, 53 IP in 2026: his projection rests on 2024–25, with playing time cut for the missed season. Medicals come first.
Injured list 2026: Forearm nerve inflammation (May 3–Jul 2)

Keystone Stuff 85 5th pct

2026 fWAR −0.6

Projected 2027 WAR −0.3 Keystone Marcel+ at 109 IP

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 918 pitches

Keystone Stuff 85

Keystone Location 94

Keystone Pitching 78

Run value (xRV) −1.14

Strikeout % 15.7%

Walk % 10.2%

Whiff % 19.0%

Chase % 26.0%

Fastball velo 94.5

Extension 5.3 ft

53.0 IP5.26 ERA6.61 FIP 38° arm1 SV

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

RHP · arm angle 39° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam38% use	38%	94.6	14.7	+12.7	85	94	14%	−1.85
Knuckle curve32% use	32%	85.4	0.8	−1.1	98	95	27%	−1.63
Sinker14% use	14%	94.1	11.6	+16.1	88	101	6%	+0.21
Slider13% use	13%	87.7	5.5	+2.7	86	105	31%	+1.28
Changeup3% use	3%	87.0	6.8	+13.2	82	69	0%	−3.62

No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Márquez: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
53	Grant Holmes ATL · ’96	90	0.8	0.9	Pre-arb
48	Zebby Matthews MIN · ’00	92	0.7	1.1	—
48	Brad Lord WSH · ’00	89	0.3	0.6	Pre-arb
48	Miles Mikolas WSH · ’88	80	−0.9	−0.2	Free agent
48	Stephen Kolek KC · ’97	90	0.5	1.0	Pre-arb

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 42%

53% zone

Knuckle curve 38%

40% zone

Sinker 11%

52% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 −0.3 WAR Mutual option

2028 −0.5 WAR Free agent

2029 −0.7 WAR Free agent

2030 −0.8 WAR Free agent

His 2027 is a mutual option, decided ≈ Nov 1–5 (either side can decline it). The Free-Agent Board expects it declined, so it prices him as a free agent. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026AAA	AAA	St. Paul Saints	31	12	45.2 IP	45.2 IP · 4.73 ERA · 14.4% K · 11.0% BB
2025AAA	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	30	2	7.1 IP	7.1 IP · 3.68 ERA · 33.3% K · 3.3% BB