ATL · P

Grant Holmes

Age 30 B/T L/R 6′0″, 226 lb USA MLB debut 2024

40-man Pitch-design idea

Atlanta’s roster as it stands #4 starter · 135 IP · 0.7 WAR in the role
Trade read Available at a price: ATL sits near the seller line (30% playoff odds, within a projected win of 30%); control through 2030.

Keystone Stuff 90 13th pct

2026 fWAR 0.8

Projected 2027 WAR 0.9 at 157 IP · 0.7 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,382 pitches

Keystone Stuff 90

Keystone Location 99

Keystone Pitching 89

Run value (xRV) −0.77

Strikeout % 17.9%

Walk % 9.7%

Whiff % 27.3%

Chase % 31.8%

Fastball velo 93.9

Extension 6.0 ft

151.2 IP3.44 ERA4.75 FIP 39° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

RHP · arm angle 39° · how to read Show suggested pitch

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Slider36% use	36%	85.4	−2.8	−1.9	102	100	40%	−0.16
Four-seam28% use	28%	94.2	15.4	+7.2	90	101	16%	−1.23
Sinker12% use	12%	93.2	8.0	+14.2	84	92	14%	−1.45
Cutter8% use	8%	92.1	12.0	+1.1	85	112	15%	−0.97
Curveball8% use	8%	83.0	−7.8	−2.4	94	96	33%	−1.07
Changeup7% use	7%	89.3	2.6	+14.1	88	87	26%	−0.35

Pitch design

Built from his own fastball (94.2 mph) plus the typical shape 28 pitchers with his slot (39°) throw: a sweeper around 83.2 mph, 2.7″ rise, −14.2″ arm-side. On the same model it grades +15 against his curveball, his weakest pitch of the same kind (+12 to +18 across the production and three cross-fit models), about 109 on his curveball’s scale; the comps’ own sweepers grade 106 at the median, so that sits above 64% of them. A season-long project that may not take: about 1.9 runs a season if it does.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Holmes: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
62	Griffin Canning SD · ’96	94	0.2	0.3	Free agent
60	Zebby Matthews MIN · ’00	92	0.7	1.1	—
58	Hunter Dobbins STL · ’99	92	0.4	1.0	—
54	Stephen Kolek KC · ’97	90	0.5	1.0	Pre-arb
53	Germán Márquez MIN · ’95	85	−0.6	−0.3	Free agent

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Slider 33%

36% zone

Four-seam 28%

50% zone

Cutter 12%

56% zone

Curveball 11%

25% zone

Changeup 10%

22% zone

Sinker 6%

38% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 0.9 WAR Pre-arb $780K*

2028 0.6 WAR Arbitration $2.2M*

2029 0.3 WAR Arbitration $3.6M*

2030 0.0 WAR Arbitration $4.6M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →