Tyler Mahle
- Free agent est. 2 yr × $13.5M ($5M–$26M) · +1.0 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as rotation depth
1 caution
- Strong October (1.35 ERA in 13.1 IP): the price model only sees the regular season, so the market may pay more.
- Injured list 2026: Left hamstring strain (May 29–Jun 24)
Pitching · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,402 pitches
Arsenal & Pitch Lab
Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch
| Pitch | Use | Velo | IVB | HB | Stuff | Loc | Whiff | xRV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam48% use | 48% | 92.8 | 17.4 | +11.3 | 100 | 110 | 22% | +0.82 |
| Splitter30% use | 30% | 86.3 | 4.5 | +13.4 | 90 | 123 | 26% | −0.14 |
| Cutter15% use | 15% | 87.8 | 10.2 | +0.1 | 91 | 93 | 15% | −0.02 |
| Slider6% use | 6% | 85.0 | 1.6 | −5.1 | 99 | 96 | 23% | −3.41 |
Built from his own fastball (92.8 mph) plus the typical shape 17 pitchers with his slot (41°) throw: a sweeper around 81.4 mph, 4.5″ rise, −9.2″ arm-side. On the same model it grades +12 against his slider, the pitch with the same job (+10 to +20 across the production and three cross-fit models), about 111 on his slider’s scale; the comps’ own sweepers grade 105 at the median, so that sits above 88% of them. A season-long project that may not take: about 1.5 runs a season if it does.
Most similar pitchers
Pitches like Mahle: same hand, shape, slot and mix
| Similarity | Player | Stuff | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | Kevin Gausman CHC · ’91 | 95 | 3.1 | 1.8 | Free agent |
| 58 | Peter Lambert HOU · ’97 | 90 | 2.4 | 1.6 | Arb |
| 56 | Casey Mize SD · ’97 | 90 | 2.3 | 2.1 | Free agent |
| 54 | Max Scherzer TOR · ’84 | 97 | 0.3 | 0.1 | Free agent |
| 51 | Colin Rea CHC · ’90 | 96 | 0.4 | 0.4 | Free agent |
Kevin Gausman (similarity 59, 1.8 WAR projected for 2027), Casey Mize (similarity 56, 2.1 WAR projected for 2027) are free agents this winter: a similar arsenal available without trading talent, at a free agent’s price. Opportunity Finder →
Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.
Pitch locations · 2026
Where each pitch finishes, by batter side
Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
A pending free agent: no club controls his 2027. Contract Studio →
Minor leagues
MLB Stats API · public box-score data
| SeasonLevel | Level | Team | Age | G | PA / IP | PA / IP ·Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026AAA | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 31 | 1 | 3 IP | 3 IP · 3.00 ERA · 21.4% K · 35.7% BB |
| 2025AAA | AAA | Round Rock Express | 30 | 3 | 7.1 IP | 7.1 IP · 6.14 ERA · 32.3% K · 6.5% BB |
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant