SD · P

Casey Mize

Age 29 B/T R/R 6′3″, 212 lb USA MLB debut 2020

40-man

Free agent est. 3 yr × $14.2M ($6M–$27M) · +1.1 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as rotation depth
Injured list 2026: Right ankle sprain (Sep 26–Oct 8)

Keystone Stuff 90 12th pct

2026 fWAR 2.3

Projected 2027 WAR 2.1 Keystone Marcel+ at 150 IP

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,083 pitches

Keystone Stuff 90

Keystone Location 107

Keystone Pitching 92

Run value (xRV) +0.36

Strikeout % 20.0%

Walk % 6.9%

Whiff % 23.2%

Chase % 29.4%

Fastball velo 93.3

Extension 6.8 ft

131.1 IP4.32 ERA4.14 FIP 44° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

RHP · arm angle 44° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam35% use	35%	93.3	17.8	+9.6	95	100	19%	+0.50
Slider28% use	28%	87.4	5.0	−3.6	96	111	25%	+0.49
Splitter24% use	24%	87.7	5.9	+14.6	88	100	30%	+0.45
Sinker10% use	10%	93.5	14.8	+13.9	90	113	15%	−0.02
Slurve4% use	4%	81.2	−6.9	−13.5	95	90	19%	−1.25

No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Mize: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
70	Mike Burrows HOU · ’99	90	−0.4	0.5	Pre-arb
67	Simeon Woods Richardson SEA · ’00	87	−0.5	0.7	—
64	Zac Gallen AZ · ’95	90	−0.1	0.6	Free agent
63	Peter Lambert HOU · ’97	90	2.4	1.6	Arb
62	Zebby Matthews MIN · ’00	92	0.7	1.1	—

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 40%

49% zone

Splitter 32%

28% zone

Slider 27%

57% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 2.1 WAR Free agent

2028 1.9 WAR Free agent

2029 1.6 WAR Free agent

2030 1.3 WAR Free agent

A pending free agent: no club controls his 2027. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026A	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	29	1	5 IP	5 IP · 1.80 ERA · 27.8% K · 5.6% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As pitcher 100% 1/1 won · +0.1 runs