DET · RF

Zach McKinstry

Age 31 B/T L/R 5′11″, 180 lb USA MLB debut 2020

40-man

Detroit’s roster as it stands starts at 2B · 457 PA · 1.4 WAR in the role
Injured list 2026: Left hip/abdominal inflammation (Apr 17–May 5)
Trade read Available at a price: DET 52% playoff odds; control through 2027.

xwOBA .288 wOBA .294

2026 fWAR 0.9

Projected 2027 WAR 1.2 at 463 PA · 1.4 in his 2027 role

Hitting · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 423 PA

xwOBA .288

Swing decisions +0.34

Contact value −2.10

Bat speed 67.9

Squared-up / swing 24%

Blasts / swing 3%

EV90 99.8

Barrel % 2.0%

Chase % 28.0%

Zone contact 90.6%

Strikeout % 16.3%

Walk % 9.7%

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vs	PA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Chase	Decisions	Contact
LHP	85	.224	.294	18%	9%	23%	+1.24	−1.75
RHP	338	.311	.286	16%	10%	29%	+0.10	−2.22

Attack angle: 7.8° (40% in 5–20°)
Attack direction: +0.5°
Swing length: 6.6 ft
Fast-swing rate: 4%
Pull-air %: 15.7%
Hard-hit %: 22.6%
Slash · wRC+: .200/.288/.294 · 65

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

Does the most damage up and in (+1.1 vs. league per 100; 0.5 standard errors on 66 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest middle-middle (−4.8; 2.4 standard errors below average on 117 pitches). Pitchers should attack here.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,488 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like McKinstry: bat path, contact quality and approach

Similarity	Player	xwOBA	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
71	Caleb Durbin BOS · ’00	.295	3.1	2.6	Pre-arb
65	TJ Rumfield COL · ’00	.332	2.5	1.9	Pre-arb
61	Cooper Pratt MIL · ’04	.320	1.7	1.9	Signed $3.9M
61	Luke Keaschall MIN · ’02	.323	3.0	2.9	Pre-arb
58	Wade Meckler LAA · ’00	.318	2.0	1.8	Pre-arb

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth

SS −1.2 +6.3

2B +2.1 +4.6

3B −1.0 +1.5

RF +5.0 −2.5

LF +2.8 −7.7

1B +4.5prior −11.0

Outs Above Average by position

Season	Pos	OAA	Range	Arm, DP	Runs	Batters
2026	LF	0	0	+0.1	+0.1	56
2026	CF	0	0	+0.2	+0.2	142
2026	3B	−1	−1	+0.3	−0.7	177
2026	SS	+3	+2	+1.2	+3.2	792
2026	2B	+4	+3	+1.6	+4.6	1,052
2026	RF	+2	+2	+2.5	+4.5	1,757
2025	1B	0	0	0.0	0.0	7
2025	2B	0	0	0.0	0.0	138
2025	LF	+1	+1	0.0	+1.0	366
2025	RF	−1	0	0.0	0.0	836
2025	SS	0	0	0.0	0.0	1,030
2025	3B	0	0	0.0	0.0	2,473
2024	RF	0	0	0.0	0.0	174
2024	LF	−1	0	+0.1	+0.1	334
2024	2B	+1	0	+0.1	+0.1	409
2024	3B	−1	−1	+0.2	−0.8	739
2024	SS	+4	+3	+0.3	+3.3	1,336
2023	CF	+1	+1	0.0	+1.0	56
2023	LF	0	0	0.0	0.0	407
2023	SS	−1	−1	0.0	−1.0	564
2023	RF	0	0	0.0	0.0	992
2023	2B	+5	+3	0.0	+3.0	1,186
2023	3B	0	0	−0.1	−0.1	1,234

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at 2B, his 2027 spot)

2026 · 2B In (charging) +2Back +1Toward 3B line +2Toward 1B line +3vs. RHH +4vs. LHH +4

Tools (percentile; arm among 3Bs)

Arm at 3B 85.9 mph · 80th

Sprint speed 27.9 ft/s · 63rd

Reaction +1.2 ft · 82nd

Burst +0.8 ft · 72nd

Route +0.2 ft · 59th

Catch difficulty (latest season)

Play	Made	Chances	Rate
★★★★★	1	6	17%
★★★★	0	1	0%
★★★	4	6	67%
★★	7	7	100%
★	9	10	90%

Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)

Season	Zone	Balls	Outs vs. exp.
2026	SS	86	−4.3
2026	RF	151	+3.3
2026	2B	114	+0.7
2025	SS	109	+2.0
2025	RF	67	−3.2
2025	LF	42	+1.6
2025	3B	195	−5.2
2024	SS	131	+1.8
2024	3B	49	−2.7

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.2 WAR Arbitration $6.8M*

2028 0.7 WAR Free agent

2029 0.0 WAR Free agent

2030 −0.5 WAR Free agent

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026A	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	31	1	3 PA	3 PA · .000/.000/.000 · 0 HR · 33.3% K · 0.0% BB
2026AAA	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	31	2	8 PA	8 PA · .125/.125/.500 · 1 HR · 12.5% K · 0.0% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 67% 4/6 won · +0.3 runs