PIT · RF

Ryan O'Hearn

Age 33 B/T L/L 6′2″, 220 lb USA MLB debut 2018

Pittsburgh org 40-man

Winter Plan starts at 1B · 474 PA · 1.2 WAR in the role
Injured list 2026: Left quad strain (Aug 1–Sep 11)
PNC Park Pittsburgh’s home park: +1.7 runs per 600 PA against an average park (+0.14 wins over 474 PA; his WAR leaves this out); home runs ×0.98 (×0.99 for left-handed hitters as a group). Park Fit →

xwOBA .313 wOBA .340

2026 fWAR 0.6

Projected 2027 WAR 1.0 at 480 PA · 1.2 in his 2027 role

Development · trends & plan

Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.

Plan for 2027

1
Diagnose low ask Find the cause of the drop in bat speed
Clear declines: bat speed 71.1 mph → 70.0 mph (2025 → 2026, MLB). Check video, medical and pitch shape before anyone sets a target.
Development Tracker
2
Health note low ask Medical note: check in before the winter program
Left quad strain (10-day IL, Aug 1–Sep 11, 2026). He came back and played 13 games after it, so it doesn’t hold up the rest of the plan.
Health & Workload

Each goal is checked when his sample can tell the target from noise: the 2027 All-Star break if it can by then, else season’s end or the sample it needs; if no single season can, it’s a lean. Coach card

Trends · MLB

Bat speed 69.0 mph Sep ’26 · 53 PA Apr ’24 – Sep ’26

Chase rate 30% Sep ’26 · 53 PA Apr ’24 – Sep ’26

Zone contact 82% Sep ’26 · 53 PA Apr ’24 – Sep ’26

Exit velocity (avg) 87.3 mph Sep ’26 · 53 PA Apr ’24 – Sep ’26

xwOBA .279 Sep ’26 · 53 PA Apr ’24 – Sep ’26

Strikeout rate 25% Sep ’26 · 53 PA Apr ’24 – Sep ’26

Clear changes

▼ bat speed 71.1 mph → 70.0 mph −1.1 mph 2025 → 2026 · MLB

Hitting · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 450 PA

xwOBA .313

Swing decisions −0.53

Contact value +0.27

Bat speed 70.8

Squared-up / swing 24%

Blasts / swing 6%

EV90 102.6

Barrel % 6.8%

Chase % 31.5%

Zone contact 86.7%

Strikeout % 22.0%

Walk % 7.6%

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vs	PA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Chase	Decisions	Contact
LHP	140	.274	.280	24%	6%	33%	−1.22	−0.48
RHP	310	.370	.328	21%	8%	31%	−0.23	+0.59

Attack angle: 11.9° (46% in 5–20°)
Attack direction: −0.6°
Swing length: 7.1 ft
Fast-swing rate: 8%
Pull-air %: 19.4%
Hard-hit %: 41.9%
Slash · wRC+: .265/.330/.440 · 109

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

Does the most damage middle-in (+4.3 vs. league per 100; 2.0 standard errors on 83 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest down and in (−4.2), but only 1.9 standard errors from average on 69 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,592 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like O'Hearn: bat path, contact quality and approach

Similarity	Player	xwOBA	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
72	Vaughn Grissom LAA · ’01	.309	0.2	0.1	—
66	Justin Foscue TEX · ’99	.325	1.7	1.0	Pre-arb
65	Andruw Monasterio BOS · ’97	.289	−0.8	−0.2	Arb
64	Mike Yastrzemski ATL · ’90	.309	0.6	0.4	Signed $10.0M
64	J.T. Realmuto PHI · ’91	.316	0.7	0.5	Signed $15.0M

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth

1B +2.0 −10.5

RF −3.3 −10.8

LF −5.1prior −15.6

Outs Above Average by position

Season	Pos	OAA	Range	Arm, DP	Runs	Batters
2026	RF	−4	−3	−0.2	−3.2	1,402
2026	1B	+1	+1	+0.6	+1.6	1,479
2025	LF	0	0	0.0	0.0	86
2025	RF	−1	−1	+0.2	−0.8	650
2025	1B	+7	+5	+0.9	+5.9	2,288
2024	LF	0	0	0.0	0.0	192
2024	RF	0	0	0.0	0.0	498
2024	1B	−2	−1	−0.6	−1.6	1,723
2023	LF	0	0	−0.1	−0.1	97
2023	RF	0	0	−0.3	−0.3	537
2023	1B	+4	+3	−3.3	−0.3	2,190

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at 1B, his 2027 spot)

2025 · 1B2026 · 1B In (charging) +1−4Back +10Toward 3B line +10Toward 1B line +2+1vs. RHH +2−2vs. LHH +3−2

At 1B in 2026, the biggest loss came in (charging) (−4 outs): a coaching target.

Tools (percentile; arm among RFs)

Arm at RF 81.3 mph · 1st

Sprint speed 26.7 ft/s · 32nd

Reaction −0.2 ft · 44th

Burst −0.6 ft · 28th

Route +1.1 ft · 98th

Catch difficulty (latest season)

Play	Made	Chances	Rate
★★★★★	1	4	25%
★★★★	0	2	0%
★★★	0	1	0%
★★	6	9	67%
★	13	15	87%

Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)

Season	Zone	Balls	Outs vs. exp.
2026	RF	141	+4.1
2026	1B	98	+1.6
2025	RF	64	−3.9
2025	1B	153	+0.7
2024	RF	50	−0.8
2024	1B	105	−5.4

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.0 WAR Guaranteed $15.0M

2028 0.3 WAR Free agent

2029 −0.3 WAR Free agent

2030 −0.9 WAR Free agent

Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026AAA	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	32	2	7 PA	7 PA · .167/.286/.333 · 0 HR · 28.6% K · 14.3% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 47% 8/17 won · −0.3 runs