LAD · P

Kris Bubic

Age 29 B/T L/L 6′3″, 220 lb USA MLB debut 2020

40-man

Free agent est. 3 yr × $11.4M ($4M–$22M) · +1.4 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as its #3 starter
1 caution
- Missed most of 2026, 55 IP in 2026: his projection rests on 2024–25, with playing time cut for the missed season. Medicals come first.
Injured list 2026: Left elbow soreness (May 18–Sep 16)

Keystone Stuff 104 66th pct

2026 fWAR 1.0

Projected 2027 WAR 2.1 Keystone Marcel+ at 109 IP

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 882 pitches

Keystone Stuff 104

Keystone Location 98

Keystone Pitching 101

Run value (xRV) −0.35

Strikeout % 24.8%

Walk % 11.5%

Whiff % 25.9%

Chase % 29.8%

Fastball velo 91.8

Extension 6.7 ft

55.0 IP3.76 ERA3.54 FIP 38° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

LHP · arm angle 38° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam41% use	41%	91.9	17.2	+2.5	107	96	25%	−1.26
Changeup21% use	21%	85.9	−0.1	+9.2	100	101	32%	+1.16
Sweeper17% use	17%	82.5	−4.0	−13.8	105	106	29%	+0.20
Sinker13% use	13%	91.4	8.4	+12.3	89	94	8%	−1.05
Slider9% use	9%	85.4	−1.9	−2.6	104	97	33%	+0.42

No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Bubic: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
44	Connelly Early WSH · ’02	104	0.8	1.5	Pre-arb
41	Shota Imanaga CHC · ’93	96	1.8	1.3	Free agent
40	Parker Messick CLE · ’00	96	4.9	3.9	Pre-arb
40	Andrew Abbott CIN · ’99	100	1.4	2.0	Arb
38	Quinn Mathews STL · ’00	94	0.8	1.1	Pre-arb

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 47%

46% zone

Changeup 27%

39% zone

Sweeper 15%

53% zone

Sinker 7%

55% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 2.1 WAR Free agent

2028 2.0 WAR Free agent

2029 1.9 WAR Free agent

2030 1.7 WAR Free agent

A pending free agent: no club controls his 2027. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026AAA	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	28	9	10 IP	10 IP · 4.50 ERA · 22.7% K · 6.8% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As pitcher 0% 0/1 won · 0.0 runs