Randy Arozarena
- Free agent est. 3 yr × $32.3M ($23M–$50M) · +2.1 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as its DH
2 cautions
- Big walk year: 5.5 WAR in 2026 against a 2.6-WAR projection. With the walk year at his projection the model would price him at $25.6M a year, not $32.3M. Last winter's 27 deals after such seasons came in about 8% under the estimate on average (± 13%): no clear premium or discount beyond what the model already pays.
- Likely to receive a qualifying offer (an estimate until offers are made, about Nov 1–5). Signing him would cost Pittsburgh a draft pick worth about $5.8M ($4.0–9.3M) net of its bonus, under the current CBA.
- Injured list 2026: Left hamstring strain (Jun 16–Jun 23)
- PNC Park Pittsburgh’s home park: −1.9 runs per 600 PA against an average park (−0.20 wins over 606 PA; his WAR leaves this out); home runs ×0.79 (×0.77 for right-handed hitters as a group). Park Fit →
Hitting · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 668 PA
Platoon splits · swing path
By pitcher handedness
| vs | PA | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Chase | Decisions | Contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHP | 195 | .403 | .341 | 20% | 9% | 31% | −0.24 | +0.73 |
| RHP | 473 | .379 | .354 | 22% | 10% | 30% | −0.08 | +1.45 |
- Attack angle
- 7.8° (59% in 5–20°)
- Attack direction
- +3.2°
- Swing length
- 7.2 ft
- Fast-swing rate
- 20%
- Pull-air %
- 14.4%
- Hard-hit %
- 43.5%
- Slash · wRC+
- .281/.381/.484 · 151
Zone map · 2026
Where he does damage, and where to pitch him
Does the most damage middle-away (+4.5 vs. league per 100; 2.4 standard errors on 161 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).
Weakest up over the middle (−2.5), but only 1.3 standard errors from average on 118 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.
Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average RHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 2,499 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).
Most similar hitters
Swings like Arozarena: bat path, contact quality and approach
| Similarity | Player | xwOBA | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | Jonathan Aranda TB · ’98 | .342 | 3.0 | 2.3 | Arb |
| 62 | Hao-Yu Lee DET · ’03 | .303 | 0.5 | 0.8 | Pre-arb |
| 59 | Blaze Alexander BAL · ’99 | .358 | 1.5 | 1.2 | Pre-arb |
| 59 | Joc Pederson TEX · ’92 | .344 | 1.4 | 0.4 | Free agent |
| 57 | Freddie Freeman LAD · ’89 | .364 | 2.6 | 1.2 | Signed $27.0M |
Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.
Fielding
2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.
| Season | Pos | OAA | Range | Arm, DP | Runs | Batters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CF | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41 |
| 2026 | LF | −5 | −4 | −3.0 | −7.0 | 5,476 |
| 2025 | LF | −5 | −4 | −2.2 | −6.2 | 5,911 |
| 2024 | CF | 0 | 0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | 255 |
| 2024 | LF | −6 | −5 | −2.3 | −7.3 | 4,960 |
| 2023 | LF | −4 | −4 | −2.8 | −6.8 | 5,043 |
Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.
At LF in 2026, the biggest loss came toward 1B line (−2 outs): a coaching target.
Tools (percentile; arm among LFs)| Play | Made | Chances | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 1 | 23 | 4% |
| ★★★★ | 0 | 6 | 0% |
| ★★★ | 5 | 14 | 36% |
| ★★ | 15 | 18 | 83% |
| ★ | 32 | 34 | 94% |
| Season | Zone | Balls | Outs vs. exp. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | LF | 540 | +3.6 |
| 2025 | LF | 564 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | LF | 491 | −9.0 |
The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
A pending free agent: no club controls his 2027. Contract Studio →
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant