AZ · P

Ryne Nelson

Age 28 B/T R/R 6′3″, 210 lb USA MLB debut 2022

40-man

Arizona’s roster as it stands #3 starter · 120 IP · 1.0 WAR in the role
Injured list 2026: Strained right elbow (Jun 19–Sep 16)
Trade read Available at a price: AZ 51% playoff odds; control through 2028.

Keystone Stuff 104 65th pct

2026 fWAR 0.0

Projected 2027 WAR 1.0 at 129 IP · 1.0 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 1,374 pitches

Keystone Stuff 104

Keystone Location 106

Keystone Pitching 111

Run value (xRV) −0.78

Strikeout % 17.6%

Walk % 6.4%

Whiff % 21.3%

Chase % 33.7%

Fastball velo 96.3

Extension 6.7 ft

87.1 IP4.95 ERA5.26 FIP 55° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

RHP · arm angle 55° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam57% use	57%	96.4	19.1	+2.8	104	106	20%	−0.70
Slider21% use	21%	88.6	3.3	−3.9	110	110	27%	−0.26
Cutter10% use	10%	93.0	13.6	−2.3	91	93	15%	−0.97
Curveball9% use	9%	81.0	−7.3	−8.0	91	85	21%	−1.93
Sinker3% use	3%	95.3	17.8	+8.6	87	103	21%	−1.75

Weak pitch to watch

Curveball grades 91 with below-average expected results; his slider grades 110. The best case is against lefties: the slider is worth +1.0 runs per 100 pitches more, 1.1 standard errors (91 and 103 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.

Weak pitch to watch

Cutter grades 91 with below-average expected results; his slider grades 110. The best case is against lefties: the slider is worth +0.6 runs per 100 pitches more, 0.7 standard errors (91 and 115 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Nelson: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
54	Bubba Chandler PIT · ’02	103	2.0	2.2	Pre-arb
54	Jack Leiter TEX · ’00	103	0.5	1.2	Pre-arb
53	Troy Melton DET · ’00	101	1.6	1.5	Pre-arb
46	Andrew Painter PHI · ’03	102	1.1	1.3	Pre-arb
46	Ben Brown CHC · ’99	100	2.0	1.9	Arb

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 59%

51% zone

Cutter 15%

39% zone

Curveball 14%

27% zone

Slider 12%

44% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.0 WAR Arbitration $3.8M*

2028 0.9 WAR Arbitration $5.9M*

2029 0.7 WAR Free agent

2030 0.5 WAR Free agent

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026A	A	Visalia Rawhide	28	1	1 IP	1 IP · 0.00 ERA · 66.7% K · 0.0% BB
2026AAA	AAA	Reno Aces	28	2	2.2 IP	2.2 IP · 6.75 ERA · 30.8% K · 0.0% BB