PHI · P

Andrew Painter

Age 23 B/T R/R 6′7″, 215 lb USA MLB debut 2026

40-man FV 55 · #1 in org

Philadelphia’s roster as it stands #4 starter · 122 IP · 1.2 WAR in the role
Trade read Unlikely to be traded: A top prospect (FV 55): clubs trade these only for a star, and rarely then.

Keystone Stuff 102 58th pct

2026 fWAR 1.1

Projected 2027 WAR 1.3 at 133 IP · 1.2 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,126 pitches

Keystone Stuff 102

Keystone Location 104

Keystone Pitching 103

Run value (xRV) −0.18

Strikeout % 20.8%

Walk % 8.5%

Whiff % 25.6%

Chase % 33.8%

Fastball velo 96.3

Extension 6.6 ft

126.2 IP5.40 ERA4.67 FIP 45° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

RHP · arm angle 45° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam33% use	33%	96.6	16.7	+2.2	96	95	16%	−1.68
Slider18% use	18%	88.0	4.0	−6.4	109	102	36%	−1.03
Sweeper17% use	17%	82.7	1.9	−16.4	116	111	29%	+0.92
Changeup11% use	11%	90.5	4.9	+12.5	100	109	35%	+3.34
Sinker9% use	9%	95.1	13.4	+12.0	87	97	10%	−2.03
Splitter8% use	8%	87.4	8.1	+9.8	98	107	38%	+0.92
Curveball6% use	6%	81.3	−7.9	−8.0	95	109	26%	+2.39

Weak pitch to watch

Sinker grades 87 with below-average expected results; his sweeper grades 116. The best case is against righties: the sweeper is worth +1.4 runs per 100 pitches more, 1.8 standard errors (249 and 159 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Painter: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
63	Jack Leiter TEX · ’00	103	0.5	1.2	Pre-arb
60	Hunter Dobbins STL · ’99	92	0.4	1.0	—
56	Jared Jones PIT · ’01	106	2.6	2.4	Arb
53	Troy Melton DET · ’00	101	1.6	1.5	Pre-arb
52	Bryce Miller SEA · ’98	104	0.9	1.0	Club option $6.1M

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 38%

42% zone

Slider 15%

50% zone

Changeup 14%

40% zone

Splitter 13%

42% zone

Curveball 10%

44% zone

Sweeper 9%

58% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.3 WAR Pre-arb $780K*

2028 1.5 WAR Pre-arb $803K*

2029 1.7 WAR Arbitration $3.0M*

2030 1.7 WAR Arbitration $5.5M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026AAA	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	23	5	23.2 IP	23.2 IP · 4.56 ERA · 24.8% K · 7.9% BB
2025A	A	Clearwater Threshers	22	4	11.1 IP	11.1 IP · 3.97 ERA · 26.7% K · 2.2% BB
2025AAA	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	22	22	106.2 IP	106.2 IP · 5.40 ERA · 23.4% K · 9.7% BB

FanGraphs: FV 55 · ETA 2026 · #21 overall. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks.