Braxton Ashcraft
- Winter Plan #3 starter · 136 IP · 2.6 WAR in the role
- Injured list 2026: Right arm discomfort (Sep 10–Sep 28)
This winter
What the Winter Plan does with Ashcraft: its decisions feed, the dated moves and the briefs
The plan keeps him: #3 starter · 136 IP · 2.6 WAR in the role.
Options left: 1 (Keystone’s estimate).
- 2027 starter hook and bullpen rolesdue Spring training · medium confidence
Rotation (Winter Plan): Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller. Two times through for Mitch Keller once his medicals clear. Let Braxton Ashcraft face the order a third time (a toss-up). Let Paul Skenes face it too, pending the review of his velocity drop. Jared Jones: a 22-batter leash (about 81 pitches) after his arm injury, not an open third time; past it, decide by matchup (a toss-up). Give Bubba Chandler development innings on a 22-batter leash (about 82 pitches), once through the top of the order a third time, at about 1.0 ± 1.2 runs against a two-times-through hook (a toss-up); the goal is first two passes at .306 xwOBA or better, not a third-time skill, pending the review of his velocity drop. Ladder: Mason Montgomery and Yohan Ramírez in the late innings (within noise of each other); Evan Sisk and Luke Weaver setting up (within noise of each other). Move Evan Sisk into the leverage ladder. Move Isaac Mattson out of it.
Development · trends & plan
Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.
Plan for 2027
- 1 Health medical first Medical clearance before any development work
Right arm discomfort (15-day IL, Sep 10–Sep 28, 2026); 0 games after it. Every other goal on this plan starts after the medical staff clears him.
Health & Workload
Each goal is checked when his sample can tell the target from noise: the 2027 All-Star break if it can by then, else season’s end or the sample it needs; if no single season can, it’s a lean. Coach card
Trends · MLB
Pitching · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,413 pitches
Arsenal & Pitch Lab
Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch
| Pitch | Use | Velo | IVB | HB | Stuff | Loc | Whiff | xRV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam31% use | 31% | 97.3 | 15.3 | +9.4 | 93 | 109 | 17% | +0.02 |
| Curveball26% use | 26% | 85.0 | −10.6 | −6.9 | 110 | 104 | 39% | +1.29 |
| Slider22% use | 22% | 91.8 | 4.4 | −1.0 | 104 | 116 | 31% | +1.05 |
| Sinker17% use | 17% | 97.1 | 6.8 | +16.2 | 104 | 103 | 18% | +1.01 |
| Splitter4% use | 4% | 91.8 | 5.8 | +14.7 | 87 | 105 | 9% | −0.15 |
No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.
Most similar pitchers
Pitches like Ashcraft: same hand, shape, slot and mix
| Similarity | Player | Stuff | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | Cade Cavalli WSH · ’98 | 99 | 3.9 | 2.8 | Signed $5.0M |
| 59 | Shane Baz BAL · ’99 | 98 | 3.4 | 2.5 | Signed $7.8M |
| 57 | George Kirby SEA · ’98 | 101 | 2.5 | 2.6 | Arb |
| 49 | Max Meyer MIA · ’99 | 97 | 2.3 | 1.7 | Arb |
| 49 | Ben Brown CHC · ’99 | 100 | 2.0 | 1.9 | Arb |
Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.
Pitch locations · 2026
Where each pitch finishes, by batter side
Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →
Minor leagues
MLB Stats API · public box-score data
| SeasonLevel | Level | Team | Age | G | PA / IP | PA / IP ·Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025AAA | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 25 | 10 | 48.1 IP | 48.1 IP · 5.03 ERA · 25.6% K · 8.7% BB |
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant