BAL · P

Shane Baz

Age 27 B/T R/R 6′3″, 200 lb USA MLB debut 2021

40-man

Baltimore’s roster as it stands #1 starter · 145 IP · 2.0 WAR in the role
Trade read Unlikely to be traded: Extended in Mar 2026 (5 yr, $68M (2026-30)): clubs rarely move a player they just committed to.

Keystone Stuff 98 39th pct

2026 fWAR 3.4

Projected 2027 WAR 2.5 at 176 IP · 2.0 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,910 pitches

Keystone Stuff 98

Keystone Location 102

Keystone Pitching 101

Run value (xRV) 0.00

Strikeout % 20.0%

Walk % 8.2%

Whiff % 21.5%

Chase % 29.9%

Fastball velo 95.7

Extension 6.5 ft

179.2 IP4.11 ERA3.62 FIP 37° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

RHP · arm angle 37° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam34% use	34%	95.8	16.5	+9.4	100	98	16%	−0.21
Knuckle curve33% use	33%	85.3	−10.1	−5.2	101	106	29%	+0.23
Cutter15% use	15%	89.6	7.1	−3.3	100	97	22%	+0.53
Changeup9% use	9%	87.7	9.0	+13.8	87	96	20%	−2.14
Sinker9% use	9%	95.3	12.3	+14.7	91	105	14%	+1.26

No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Baz: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
60	George Kirby SEA · ’98	101	2.5	2.6	Arb
59	Braxton Ashcraft PIT · ’99	102	3.5	3.0	Pre-arb
58	Sean Burke CWS · ’99	96	3.2	2.2	Pre-arb
56	Cade Cavalli WSH · ’98	99	3.9	2.8	Signed $5.0M
54	Brandon Pfaadt AZ · ’98	96	2.2	2.0	Signed $5.4M

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 42%

48% zone

Knuckle curve 35%

44% zone

Changeup 15%

35% zone

Cutter 7%

53% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 2.5 WAR Guaranteed $7.8M

2028 2.4 WAR Guaranteed $10.8M

2029 2.3 WAR Guaranteed $21.8M

2030 2.1 WAR Guaranteed $25.8M

Contract Studio →

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As pitcher 40% 2/5 won · −0.1 runs