MIN · P

Connor Prielipp

Age 25 B/T L/L 6′2″, 210 lb USA MLB debut 2026

40-man FV 50 · #5 in org Dead-weight pitch

Minnesota’s roster as it stands #1 starter · 122 IP · 1.7 WAR in the role
Injured list 2026: Left middle finger blister (Jul 9–Jul 26)
Trade read Available at a price: MIN 27% playoff odds; control through 2032.

Keystone Stuff 100 50th pct

2026 fWAR 2.0

Projected 2027 WAR 1.8 at 133 IP · 1.7 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,067 pitches

Keystone Stuff 100

Keystone Location 104

Keystone Pitching 101

Run value (xRV) +0.16

Strikeout % 23.9%

Walk % 8.2%

Whiff % 23.6%

Chase % 30.4%

Fastball velo 95.4

Extension 5.8 ft

125.2 IP4.87 ERA3.73 FIP 39° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

LHP · arm angle 39° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Slider30% use	30%	87.9	1.3	−2.9	113	108	31%	+0.71
Four-seam26% use	26%	95.6	15.2	+8.3	88	96	16%	−1.01
Curveball19% use	19%	83.3	−7.0	−12.4	106	107	38%	+1.62
Sinker15% use	15%	95.0	9.5	+14.8	90	99	9%	+0.34
Changeup10% use	10%	86.7	4.1	+13.6	95	97	20%	−1.42

Dead weight

Four-seam grades 88 and gets below-average expected results on 26% usage. Against righties, moving about 7 of every 100 pitches to the slider (113 Stuff), about 25% of his four-seams to them, is worth an estimated 0.8 runs per season, after a 50% haircut for diminishing returns. vs. righties: the slider is worth +1.6 runs per 100 pitches more, 2.2 standard errors (364 and 389 pitches; his own results against that side combined with Stuff and the league’s platoon split). His fastballs stay at 35%+.

Weak pitch to watch

Changeup grades 95 with below-average expected results; his slider grades 113. The best case is against righties: the slider is worth +1.3 runs per 100 pitches more, 1.7 standard errors (364 and 205 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Prielipp: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
63	Justin Wrobleski LAD · ’00	105	1.9	1.4	Pre-arb
62	Gage Jump ATH · ’03	106	1.7	1.8	Pre-arb
60	Shane Drohan MIL · ’99	97	2.0	1.7	Pre-arb
60	Matthew Liberatore STL · ’99	96	1.1	1.4	Arb
54	Quinn Mathews STL · ’00	94	0.8	1.1	Pre-arb

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 27%

46% zone

Slider 25%

48% zone

Curveball 20%

37% zone

Sinker 14%

55% zone

Changeup 14%

37% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.8 WAR Pre-arb $780K*

2028 1.9 WAR Pre-arb $803K*

2029 1.9 WAR Arbitration $3.6M*

2030 1.9 WAR Arbitration $6.7M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026AAA	AAA	St. Paul Saints	25	5	18.2 IP	18.2 IP · 1.93 ERA · 34.2% K · 12.3% BB
2025AA	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	24	19	61.2 IP	61.2 IP · 3.65 ERA · 27.0% K · 6.7% BB
2025AAA	AAA	St. Paul Saints	24	5	21 IP	21 IP · 5.14 ERA · 26.9% K · 14.0% BB

FanGraphs: FV 50 · ETA 2026 · #96 overall. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks.