STL · P

Matthew Liberatore

Age 26 B/T L/L 6′4″, 215 lb USA MLB debut 2022

40-man

St. Louis’ roster as it stands #4 starter · 138 IP · 1.2 WAR in the role
Trade read Available at a price: STL 27% playoff odds; control through 2029.

Keystone Stuff 96 31st pct

2026 fWAR 1.1

Projected 2027 WAR 1.4 at 163 IP · 1.2 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,609 pitches

Keystone Stuff 96

Keystone Location 102

Keystone Pitching 92

Run value (xRV) −0.56

Strikeout % 22.9%

Walk % 8.2%

Whiff % 23.9%

Chase % 28.6%

Fastball velo 94.3

Extension 6.3 ft

155.0 IP5.23 ERA4.62 FIP 46° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

LHP · arm angle 46° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam30% use	30%	94.3	16.5	+6.2	84	105	12%	−1.33
Slider26% use	26%	86.0	0.1	−4.2	114	104	36%	+0.85
Curveball18% use	18%	79.5	−17.2	−9.8	103	83	40%	−0.33
Changeup13% use	13%	88.5	9.5	+14.4	87	106	20%	−2.07
Sinker8% use	8%	94.2	13.9	+13.0	92	118	10%	−0.22
Cutter4% use	4%	90.4	10.9	−1.4	92	83	20%	−1.63

Weak pitch to watch

Changeup grades 87 with below-average expected results; his sweeper grades 117. Neither side has 60+ of each pitch. No mix change until it clears.

Weak pitch to watch

Four-seam grades 84 with below-average expected results; his sweeper grades 117. Neither side has 60+ of each pitch. No mix change until it clears.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Liberatore: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
62	Robbie Ray SD · ’91	96	0.9	0.7	Free agent
60	Connor Prielipp MIN · ’01	100	2.0	1.8	Pre-arb
58	Gage Jump ATH · ’03	106	1.7	1.8	Pre-arb
54	Reid Detmers LAA · ’99	104	4.9	2.6	Arb
54	Andrew Abbott CIN · ’99	100	1.4	2.0	Arb

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 31%

48% zone

Slider 22%

43% zone

Curveball 21%

30% zone

Changeup 17%

43% zone

Sinker 6%

71% zone

Cutter 4%

41% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.4 WAR Arbitration $4.1M*

2028 1.4 WAR Arbitration $6.0M*

2029 1.4 WAR Arbitration $7.5M*

2030 1.2 WAR Free agent

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As pitcher 0% 0/2 won · −0.1 runs