Players / Player profile
DET · 3B

Colt Keith

Age 25 B/T L/R 6′2″, 211 lb USA MLB debut 2024
40-man
  • Detroit’s roster as it stands starts at 3B · 453 PA · 2.0 WAR in the role
  • Injured list 2026: (Sep 21–Sep 28)
  • Trade read Unlikely to be traded: Young and cheap for years (age 25, about $32M of surplus value through 2032): a core piece.
xwOBA .333 wOBA .325
2026 fWAR 1.3
Projected 2027 WAR 1.6 at 458 PA · 2.0 in his 2027 role

Hitting · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 423 PA

xwOBA .333 xwOBA: .333, 68th percentile
Swing decisions +0.16 Swing decisions: +0.16, 53rd percentile
Contact value +0.51 Contact value: +0.51, 65th percentile
Bat speed 72.1 Bat speed: 72.1, 50th percentile
Squared-up / swing 27% Squared-up / swing: 27%, 84th percentile
Blasts / swing 10% Blasts / swing: 10%, 78th percentile
EV90 103.8 EV90: 103.8, 44th percentile
Barrel % 7.6% Barrel %: 7.6%, 48th percentile
Chase % 24.6% Chase %: 24.6%, 81st percentile
Zone contact 86.0% Zone contact: 86.0%, 61st percentile
Strikeout % 19.9% Strikeout %: 19.9%, 60th percentile
Walk % 7.6% Walk %: 7.6%, 33rd percentile

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vsPAwOBAxwOBAK%BB%ChaseDecisionsContact
LHP25.172.23516%0%23%−1.04−2.81
RHP398.335.33920%8%25%+0.22+0.62
Attack angle
10.8° (49% in 5–20°)
Attack direction
−2.4°
Swing length
6.9 ft
Fast-swing rate
19%
Pull-air %
16.6%
Hard-hit %
42.2%
Slash · wRC+
.258/.322/.406 · 104

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

−0.7+1.7+1.6−0.6−1.3+0.3+0.5−0.4−2.1+0.3−0.3+2.5+1.4−3.3−0.5+1.7−0.7−2.6−1.6−0.1−0.9+0.6−0.3+0.5+1.8LHB

Does the most damage middle-away (+2.5 vs. league per 100; 1.2 standard errors on 101 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest middle-in (−3.3), but only 1.5 standard errors from average on 68 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,484 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Keith: bat path, contact quality and approach

SimilarityPlayerxwOBA’26 WAR’27 proj2027
63Josh Jung TEX · ’98.3483.22.0Arb
62Adley Rutschman BOS · ’98.3273.01.9Arb
59Hunter Feduccia LAD · ’97.3150.50.1—
59Victor Caratini MIN · ’93.3050.70.7Signed $6.5M
57Hao-Yu Lee DET · ’03.3030.50.8Pre-arb

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth
2B −1.5 +1.0
3B −2.8 −0.3
1B 0.0 −12.5
Outs Above Average by position
SeasonPosOAARangeArm, DPRunsBatters
20261B−2−2−1.2−3.2492
20263B00+0.5+0.51,747
20251B00−0.1−0.1628
20252B−1−1−0.4−1.4734
20253B−2−1−0.5−1.51,100
20242B00−1.5−1.54,534

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at 3B, his 2027 spot)
2025 · 3B2026 · 3B In (charging) −2+1Back −20Toward 3B line +1−2Toward 1B line 00vs. RHH 00vs. LHH −2−2

At 3B in 2026, the biggest loss came toward 3B line (−2 outs): a coaching target.

Tools (percentile; arm among 2Bs)
Arm at 2B 77.4 mph · 40th
Sprint speed 28.1 ft/s · 70th
Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)
SeasonZoneBallsOuts vs. exp.
20263B130−0.2
20253B89+0.2
20252B76+2.6
20242B440−8.0

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.6 WAR Guaranteed $4.3M
2028 1.6 WAR Guaranteed $5.3M
2029 1.6 WAR Guaranteed $5.3M
2030 1.5 WAR Club option $10.0M

Contract Studio →

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 58% 11/19 won · +0.7 runs
Keystone is an independent portfolio project. It is not affiliated with Major League Baseball or any club. Data: MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs. Used under their terms for individual, non-commercial use.