STL · CF

Nathan Church

Age 26 B/T L/L 5′10″, 180 lb USA MLB debut 2025

40-man FV 40 · #25 in org

St. Louis’ roster as it stands on the 40-man, off the 26-man (call-up depth)
Injured list 2026: Left shoulder strain (May 22–Jun 9)
Trade read Available at a price: STL 27% playoff odds; control through 2031.

xwOBA .284 wOBA .296

2026 fWAR 0.4

Projected 2027 WAR 0.6 Keystone Marcel+ at 442 PA

Hitting · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 469 PA

xwOBA .284

Swing decisions −1.67

Contact value −0.53

Bat speed 69.4

Squared-up / swing 20%

Blasts / swing 5%

EV90 101.7

Barrel % 5.3%

Chase % 42.2%

Zone contact 85.4%

Strikeout % 17.3%

Walk % 5.1%

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vs	PA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Chase	Decisions	Contact
LHP	106	.275	.259	15%	5%	38%	−1.44	−0.91
RHP	363	.302	.291	18%	5%	43%	−1.74	−0.47

Attack angle: 5.5° (40% in 5–20°)
Attack direction: +0.9°
Swing length: 7.1 ft
Fast-swing rate: 8%
Pull-air %: 14.5%
Hard-hit %: 30.2%
Slash · wRC+: .246/.290/.364 · 81

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

Does the most damage down over the middle (+2.2 vs. league per 100; 1.0 standard errors on 95 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest middle-middle (−3.9), but only 1.9 standard errors from average on 104 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,618 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Church: bat path, contact quality and approach

Similarity	Player	xwOBA	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
71	Ceddanne Rafaela BOS · ’00	.288	4.1	3.0	Signed $3.8M
65	Jake McCarthy COL · ’97	.323	2.7	1.8	Arb
59	Alika Williams ATH · ’99	.250	1.1	0.8	Pre-arb
59	Andrés Giménez TOR · ’98	.276	2.8	1.9	Signed $23.6M
58	Jake Mangum PIT · ’96	.294	0.9	0.9	Pre-arb

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth

CF +3.0 +5.5

LF +3.8 −3.7

RF +6.8prior −3.7

1B +8.5prior −7.0

Outs Above Average by position

Season	Pos	OAA	Range	Arm, DP	Runs	Batters
2026	RF	0	0	0.0	0.0	97
2026	LF	−1	−1	−0.1	−1.1	1,090
2026	CF	+3	+3	−0.4	+2.6	3,461
2025	LF	0	0	0.0	0.0	51
2025	RF	+1	+1	0.0	+1.0	72
2025	CF	+2	+2	+0.3	+2.3	588

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at CF)

2025 · CF2026 · CF In (charging) +2−2Back 0−1Toward 3B line +1+2Toward 1B line +1+3vs. RHH +2+4vs. LHH +1−2

At CF in 2026, the biggest loss came in (charging) (−2 outs): a coaching target.

Tools (percentile; arm among CFs)

Arm at CF 90.9 mph · 73rd

Sprint speed 28.5 ft/s · 81st

Reaction −0.2 ft · 44th

Burst +0.3 ft · 58th

Route +0.6 ft · 84th

Catch difficulty (latest season)

Play	Made	Chances	Rate
★★★★★	2	24	8%
★★★★	1	5	20%
★★★	9	13	69%
★★	22	24	92%
★	23	24	96%

Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)

Season	Zone	Balls	Outs vs. exp.
2026	LF	102	+0.6
2026	CF	362	−5.8
2025	CF	67	+2.1

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 0.6 WAR Pre-arb $780K*

2028 0.6 WAR Pre-arb $803K*

2029 0.5 WAR Arbitration $2.0M*

2030 0.3 WAR Arbitration $2.7M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026AAA	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	25	3	11 PA	11 PA · .091/.091/.364 · 1 HR · 18.2% K · 0.0% BB
2025A	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	4	14 PA	14 PA · .154/.214/.231 · 0 HR · 14.3% K · 7.1% BB
2025AA	AA	Springfield Cardinals	24	29	129 PA	129 PA · .336/.380/.563 · 6 HR · 7.8% K · 6.2% BB
2025AAA	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	24	53	242 PA	242 PA · .335/.400/.521 · 7 HR · 10.3% K · 9.9% BB

FanGraphs: FV 40 · ETA 2026. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks.

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 0% 0/4 won · −0.7 runs