Players / Player profile
COL · LF

Jake McCarthy

Age 29 B/T L/L 6′0″, 213 lb USA MLB debut 2021
40-man
  • Colorado’s roster as it stands starts at LF · 512 PA · 1.7 WAR in the role
  • Trade read Likely available: COL projects to miss the playoffs (9% odds) and he has 2 years of control left: a natural trade candidate.
xwOBA .323 wOBA .358
2026 fWAR 2.7
Projected 2027 WAR 1.8 at 520 PA · 1.7 in his 2027 role

Hitting · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 595 PA

xwOBA .323 xwOBA: .323, 52nd percentile
Swing decisions −0.67 Swing decisions: −0.67, 20th percentile
Contact value +0.04 Contact value: +0.04, 49th percentile
Bat speed 71.1 Bat speed: 71.1, 36th percentile
Squared-up / swing 22% Squared-up / swing: 22%, 42nd percentile
Blasts / swing 6% Blasts / swing: 6%, 30th percentile
EV90 102.2 EV90: 102.2, 24th percentile
Barrel % 5.4% Barrel %: 5.4%, 28th percentile
Chase % 37.8% Chase %: 37.8%, 11th percentile
Zone contact 87.4% Zone contact: 87.4%, 70th percentile
Strikeout % 16.0% Strikeout %: 16.0%, 82nd percentile
Walk % 4.9% Walk %: 4.9%, 8th percentile

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vsPAwOBAxwOBAK%BB%ChaseDecisionsContact
LHP182.394.33814%4%38%−0.35+0.46
RHP413.342.31617%5%38%−0.80−0.14
Attack angle
8.4° (50% in 5–20°)
Attack direction
−1.8°
Swing length
7.1 ft
Fast-swing rate
14%
Pull-air %
15.8%
Hard-hit %
28.3%
Slash · wRC+
.291/.334/.475 · 108

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

−1.4−0.6−0.5−0.6+3.2+0.5+2.8+2.8+2.50.0−1.6−0.9+3.8+3.4−1.7−0.1+2.7−2.7+2.3−1.3+0.6−0.3−1.3−1.2−0.4LHB

Does the most damage middle-middle (+3.8 vs. league per 100; 1.9 standard errors on 112 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest down over the middle (−2.7), but only 1.3 standard errors from average on 121 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,792 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like McCarthy: bat path, contact quality and approach

SimilarityPlayerxwOBA’26 WAR’27 proj2027
66Jacob Gonzalez PIT · ’02.298−0.10.3—
65Nathan Church STL · ’00.2840.40.6Pre-arb
64Vaughn Grissom LAA · ’01.3090.20.1—
60Lourdes Gurriel Jr. AZ · ’93.273−1.00.0Free agent
60Jonah Heim ATH · ’95.285−0.6−0.6Free agent

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth
CF −7.4 −4.9
LF −1.1 −8.6
RF −0.9 −11.4
1B −0.6prior −16.1
Outs Above Average by position
SeasonPosOAARangeArm, DPRunsBatters
2026RF00−0.4−0.4520
2026CF00−1.4−1.41,989
2026LF00−1.7−1.72,525
2025RF+1+1−0.2+0.8358
2025CF00−0.3−0.3453
2025LF+2+1−0.8+0.21,254
2024LF000.00.0713
2024RF+2+20.0+2.01,739
2024CF+3+30.0+3.02,128
2023CF+1+1−0.4+0.6450
2023RF−1−1−2.5−3.52,532

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at LF)
2025 · LF In (charging) +1Back +1Toward 3B line +1Toward 1B line 0vs. RHH +2vs. LHH +1
Tools (percentile; arm among LFs)
Arm at LF 79.6 mph · 4th
Sprint speed 30.0 ft/s · 99th
Reaction +1.8 ft · 90th
Burst +0.2 ft · 53rd
Route −1.4 ft · 7th
Catch difficulty (latest season)
PlayMadeChancesRate
★★★★★1323%
★★★★1520%
★★★91753%
★★161794%
★2727100%
Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)
SeasonZoneBallsOuts vs. exp.
2026RF59+1.9
2026LF274−1.7
2026CF266+2.0
2025RF44+1.6
2025LF138+0.1
2025CF56−0.6
2024RF172+2.2
2024LF85−2.6
2024CF240−0.8

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.8 WAR Arbitration $5.9M*
2028 1.5 WAR Arbitration $10.3M*
2029 1.1 WAR Free agent
2030 0.6 WAR Free agent

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevelLevelTeamAgeGPA / IPPA / IP ·Line
2025AAAAAAReno Aces2749237 PA 237 PA · .314/.401/.440 · 1 HR · 13.9% K · 10.1% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 80% 4/5 won · 0.0 runs
Keystone is an independent portfolio project. It is not affiliated with Major League Baseball or any club. Data: MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs. Used under their terms for individual, non-commercial use.