BOS · P

Payton Tolle

Age 23 B/T L/L 6′6″, 250 lb USA MLB debut 2025

40-man FV 55 · #2 in org

Boston’s roster as it stands #1 starter · 129 IP · 2.8 WAR in the role
Trade read Unlikely to be traded: Young, controllable regular (age 24, control through 2031): the kind of player clubs build around.

Keystone Stuff 110 84th pct

2026 fWAR 4.1

Projected 2027 WAR 3.2 at 146 IP · 2.8 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,282 pitches

Keystone Stuff 110

Keystone Location 102

Keystone Pitching 121

Run value (xRV) +1.49

Strikeout % 28.4%

Walk % 6.6%

Whiff % 27.9%

Chase % 36.4%

Fastball velo 95.7

Extension 7.3 ft

148.2 IP3.03 ERA3.04 FIP 28° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

LHP · arm angle 28° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam45% use	45%	96.1	15.6	+9.7	111	103	31%	+1.57
Sinker24% use	24%	94.8	9.8	+16.9	106	101	17%	+0.98
Cutter19% use	19%	88.6	7.2	−2.4	102	98	28%	+1.49
Curveball9% use	9%	82.9	−4.5	−6.9	106	98	43%	+3.40
Changeup3% use	3%	88.6	1.3	+10.8	92	84	18%	−1.60

No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Tolle: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
40	Kyle Harrison MIL · ’01	115	1.7	1.6	Pre-arb
38	Trevor Rogers BAL · ’97	106	4.0	3.3	Free agent
32	Connelly Early WSH · ’02	104	0.8	1.5	Pre-arb
26	Jake Bennett BOS · ’00	95	2.3	2.1	Pre-arb
24	Sean Manaea NYM · ’92	110	1.0	0.7	Signed $25.0M

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 48%

47% zone

Sinker 21%

51% zone

Cutter 17%

50% zone

Curveball 10%

39% zone

Changeup 4%

35% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 3.2 WAR Pre-arb $780K*

2028 3.5 WAR Pre-arb $803K*

2029 3.6 WAR Arbitration $5.5M*

2030 3.7 WAR Arbitration $10.9M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026AAA	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	23	3	15 IP	15 IP · 3.00 ERA · 31.1% K · 6.6% BB
2025A+	A+	Greenville Drive	22	11	49.2 IP	49.2 IP · 3.62 ERA · 38.3% K · 6.8% BB
2025AA	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	22	6	27 IP	27 IP · 1.67 ERA · 37.4% K · 7.1% BB
2025AAA	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	22	3	15 IP	15 IP · 3.60 ERA · 28.8% K · 3.4% BB

FanGraphs: FV 55 · ETA 2026 · #17 overall. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks.