PHI · P

Aaron Nola

Age 33 B/T R/R 6′2″, 200 lb USA MLB debut 2015

40-man Dead-weight pitch

Philadelphia’s roster as it stands #5 starter · 131 IP · 0.9 WAR in the role
Trade read Unlikely to be traded: 10-and-5 rights (10+ years of service, five straight seasons with PHI): he can veto any trade.

Keystone Stuff 101 54th pct

2026 fWAR 1.3

Projected 2027 WAR 1.0 at 150 IP · 0.9 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,946 pitches

Keystone Stuff 101

Keystone Location 113

Keystone Pitching 106

Run value (xRV) −0.06

Strikeout % 23.8%

Walk % 7.9%

Whiff % 27.1%

Chase % 33.3%

Fastball velo 92.0

Extension 6.9 ft

175.1 IP4.67 ERA4.87 FIP 19° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

RHP · arm angle 19° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Knuckle curve33% use	33%	78.4	−10.3	−14.8	111	112	41%	+1.76
Four-seam24% use	24%	92.3	14.6	+12.8	108	108	14%	−0.81
Sinker18% use	18%	91.6	8.2	+17.4	95	105	12%	−1.92
Changeup16% use	16%	85.6	2.9	+14.6	79	111	26%	−0.65
Cutter8% use	8%	86.2	7.6	−0.7	94	89	26%	−0.22

Dead weight

Changeup grades 79 and gets below-average expected results on 16% usage. Against lefties, moving about 8 of every 100 pitches to the knuckle curve (111 Stuff), about 38% of his changeups to them, is worth an estimated 1.4 runs per season, after a 50% haircut for diminishing returns. vs. lefties: the knuckle curve is worth +1.8 runs per 100 pitches more, 2.9 standard errors (598 and 406 pitches; his own results against that side combined with Stuff and the league’s platoon split). His fastballs stay at 35%+.

Dead weight

Sinker grades 95 and gets below-average expected results on 18% usage. Against lefties, moving about 7 of every 100 pitches to the knuckle curve (111 Stuff), about 50% of his sinkers to them, is worth an estimated 1.3 runs per season, after a 50% haircut for diminishing returns. vs. lefties: the knuckle curve is worth +2.1 runs per 100 pitches more, 2.9 standard errors (598 and 250 pitches; his own results against that side combined with Stuff and the league’s platoon split). His fastballs stay at 35%+.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Nola: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
64	Spencer Arrighetti TOR · ’00	109	−0.2	0.4	Arb
60	Jake Irvin WSH · ’97	98	0.5	0.4	Arb
58	Michael Soroka AZ · ’97	97	2.7	2.0	Free agent
56	Brandon Pfaadt AZ · ’98	96	2.2	2.0	Signed $5.4M
53	Joe Ryan MIN · ’96	112	2.5	2.4	Free agent

Michael Soroka (similarity 58, 2.0 WAR projected for 2027), Joe Ryan (similarity 53, 2.4 WAR projected for 2027) are free agents this winter: a similar arsenal available without trading talent, at a free agent’s price. Opportunity Finder →

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Knuckle curve 32%

35% zone

Four-seam 27%

45% zone

Changeup 22%

28% zone

Sinker 13%

49% zone

Cutter 6%

37% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.0 WAR Guaranteed $24.6M

2028 0.6 WAR Guaranteed $24.6M

2029 0.2 WAR Guaranteed $24.6M

2030 −0.2 WAR Guaranteed $24.6M

Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2025AAA	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	32	3	12.1 IP	12.1 IP · 2.19 ERA · 33.3% K · 5.9% BB