Nathaniel Lowe
- Free agent est. 1 yr × $3.0M ($2M–$7M) · +0.3 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as a bench bat
- PNC Park Pittsburgh’s home park: +1.6 runs per 600 PA against an average park (+0.13 wins over 475 PA; his WAR leaves this out); home runs ×0.97 (×0.99 for left-handed hitters as a group). Park Fit →
Hitting · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 428 PA
Platoon splits · swing path
By pitcher handedness
| vs | PA | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Chase | Decisions | Contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHP | 49 | .190 | .256 | 20% | 4% | 35% | −0.30 | −2.08 |
| RHP | 379 | .360 | .348 | 23% | 9% | 26% | +0.31 | +0.95 |
- Attack angle
- 8.0° (55% in 5–20°)
- Attack direction
- +3.5°
- Swing length
- 7.5 ft
- Fast-swing rate
- 40%
- Pull-air %
- 17.0%
- Hard-hit %
- 42.3%
- Slash · wRC+
- .252/.317/.444 · 107
Zone map · 2026
Where he does damage, and where to pitch him
Does the most damage middle-away (+4.3 vs. league per 100; 2.0 standard errors on 80 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).
Weakest down over the middle (−0.8), but only 0.4 standard errors from average on 103 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.
Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,643 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).
Most similar hitters
Swings like Lowe: bat path, contact quality and approach
| Similarity | Player | xwOBA | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | Christian Walker HOU · ’91 | .304 | 1.6 | 0.5 | Signed $20.0M |
| 70 | Tyler Soderstrom ATH · ’01 | .329 | 1.5 | 1.9 | Signed $6.4M |
| 67 | Iván Herrera STL · ’00 | .335 | 1.4 | 2.2 | Arb |
| 65 | Gunnar Henderson BAL · ’01 | .322 | 3.6 | 4.4 | Arb |
| 65 | Manny Machado SD · ’92 | .329 | 2.4 | 1.7 | Signed $39.1M |
Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.
Fielding
2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.
| Season | Pos | OAA | Range | Arm, DP | Runs | Batters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1B | −3 | −2 | +0.1 | −1.9 | 2,130 |
| 2025 | 1B | −5 | −4 | −3.7 | −7.7 | 5,402 |
| 2024 | 1B | +7 | +5 | +0.5 | +5.5 | 5,120 |
| 2023 | 1B | +5 | +4 | −2.6 | +1.4 | 5,927 |
Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.
At 1B in 2026, the biggest loss came in (charging) (−3 outs): a coaching target.
Tools (percentile; arm among 1Bs)| Season | Zone | Balls | Outs vs. exp. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1B | 113 | −4.9 |
| 2025 | 1B | 313 | −5.8 |
| 2024 | 1B | 257 | +10.0 |
The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
A pending free agent: no club controls his 2027. Contract Studio →
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant