Jacob Gonzalez
- Winter Plan trades him to Houston for Isaac Paredes (≈ Nov 1–Dec 1)
This winter
What the Winter Plan does with Gonzalez: its decisions feed, the dated moves and the briefs
The plan trades him to Houston for Isaac Paredes: valued at $3.0M of a $16.4M package (the price Keystone expects Houston to ask: $16.0M).
- ≈ Nov 1–Dec 1 Acquire Isaac Paredes (HOU) for Jacob Gonzalez (FV 35+) + Jhostynxon Garcia (FV 45)After HOU's option call (≈ Nov 1–5), before the CBA expires. HOU holds a $13.35M club option on him for 2027.
- Fix third basedue Dec 1 · medium confidence
Acquire Isaac Paredes (HOU) for Jacob Gonzalez and Jhostynxon Garcia once Houston exercises his $13.35M option (≈ Nov 1–5), and close before Dec 1: +2.6 wins, taking the plan to 81.7 (80% range 70–94) and 44% playoff odds, for $12.6M of 2027 payroll and $16.4M of prospect value. His value is the bat; his glove rates below Jared Triolo's. On price alone the trade is short of the market price of a win (0.90 wins per $10M against 1.11); the case is that nothing else gets its wins: the next option without a draft-pick cost adds 1.0 fewer. He is under control only through 2027: third base reopens for 2028.
Development · trends & plan
Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.
Trends · MLB
Hitting · 2026
225 PA: percentiles need 300+, so values only
Platoon splits · swing path
By pitcher handedness
| vs | PA | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Chase | Decisions | Contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHP | 33 | .361 | .295 | 18% | 9% | 30% | +1.06 | −1.09 |
| RHP | 192 | .261 | .298 | 20% | 5% | 39% | −0.86 | +0.32 |
- Attack angle
- 8.5° (56% in 5–20°)
- Attack direction
- −1.0°
- Swing length
- 7.2 ft
- Fast-swing rate
- 12%
- Pull-air %
- 20.0%
- Hard-hit %
- 37.0%
- Slash · wRC+
- .220/.274/.364 · 75
Zone map · 2026
Where he does damage, and where to pitch him
Does the most damage middle-middle (+2.7 vs. league per 100; 1.2 standard errors on 50 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).
Weakest middle-in (−2.7), but only 1.2 standard errors from average on 34 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.
Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 805 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).
Most similar hitters
Swings like Gonzalez: bat path, contact quality and approach
| Similarity | Player | xwOBA | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | Jake McCarthy COL · ’97 | .323 | 2.7 | 1.8 | Arb |
| 59 | Ezequiel Duran TEX · ’99 | .302 | 4.4 | 2.2 | Arb |
| 58 | Daulton Varsho HOU · ’96 | .283 | 0.8 | 1.6 | Free agent |
| 58 | Brandon Marsh PHI · ’97 | .302 | 0.3 | 1.3 | Arb |
| 56 | Nathan Church STL · ’00 | .284 | 0.4 | 0.6 | Pre-arb |
Daulton Varsho (similarity 58, 1.6 WAR projected for 2027) is a free agent this winter: a similar swing available without trading talent, at a free agent’s price. Opportunity Finder →
Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.
Fielding
2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.
| Season | Pos | OAA | Range | Arm, DP | Runs | Batters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3B | +2 | +1 | +0.1 | +1.1 | 288 |
| 2026 | SS | −6 | −5 | +0.1 | −4.9 | 941 |
| 2026 | 1B | +2 | +2 | +0.4 | +2.4 | 967 |
Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.
| Season | Zone | Balls | Outs vs. exp. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SS | 83 | −5.3 |
| 2026 | 1B | 53 | +2.6 |
The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
* Estimated: RosterResource has no contract row for him, so control through 2032 estimated from his MLB debut (2026-05-31): six years of service at the earliest; he isn’t in the contract data, and time in the minors would add seasons; pre-arbitration years at the minimum, arbitration years from Keystone’s arbitration model. Contract Studio →
Minor leagues
MLB Stats API · public box-score data
| SeasonLevel | Level | Team | Age | G | PA / IP | PA / IP ·Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026AAA | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 24 | 53 | 239 PA | 239 PA · .320/.422/.675 · 19 HR · 20.5% K · 13.8% BB |
| 2025AA | AA | Birmingham Barons | 23 | 89 | 368 PA | 368 PA · .244/.305/.369 · 6 HR · 14.1% K · 7.6% BB |
| 2025AAA | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 23 | 45 | 171 PA | 171 PA · .204/.310/.293 · 2 HR · 19.9% K · 11.7% BB |
FanGraphs: FV 35+ · ETA 2026. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks; where he has it, the development panel above shows it.
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant