WSH · P

Andrew Alvarez

Age 27 B/T L/L 6′3″, 215 lb USA MLB debut 2025

40-man

Washington’s roster as it stands #2 starter · 120 IP · 2.1 WAR in the role
Trade read Available at a price: WSH 22% playoff odds; control through 2032.

Keystone Stuff 97 36th pct

2026 fWAR 2.5

Projected 2027 WAR 2.2 at 128 IP · 2.1 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 1,857 pitches

Keystone Stuff 97

Keystone Location 92

Keystone Pitching 94

Run value (xRV) −0.01

Strikeout % 24.1%

Walk % 10.8%

Whiff % 26.4%

Chase % 30.0%

Fastball velo 92.1

Extension 6.2 ft

112.2 IP3.43 ERA3.32 FIP 47° arm1 SV

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

LHP · arm angle 47° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Curveball32% use	32%	82.9	−12.4	−10.9	110	93	34%	+1.38
Four-seam28% use	28%	92.2	13.8	+3.1	84	97	13%	−0.61
Slider20% use	20%	84.2	−2.0	−1.5	103	100	36%	−0.55
Sinker14% use	14%	91.7	5.7	+14.0	93	86	17%	−1.28
Changeup5% use	5%	86.4	4.9	+15.3	89	92	37%	+0.34

Weak pitch to watch

Four-seam grades 84 with below-average expected results; his curveball grades 110. The best case is against righties: the curveball is worth +1.3 runs per 100 pitches more, 2.0 standard errors (487 and 437 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.

Weak pitch to watch

Sinker grades 93 with below-average expected results; his curveball grades 110. The best case is against righties: the curveball is worth +1.5 runs per 100 pitches more, 2.1 standard errors (487 and 129 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Alvarez: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
43	Matthew Liberatore STL · ’99	96	1.1	1.4	Arb
43	Andrew Abbott CIN · ’99	100	1.4	2.0	Arb
37	Noah Cameron KC · ’99	99	2.8	2.4	Pre-arb
32	Kyle Freeland COL · ’93	93	0.8	0.9	Vesting option $17.0M
32	MacKenzie Gore TEX · ’99	94	2.8	2.8	Arb

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Curveball 36%

37% zone

Four-seam 32%

44% zone

Slider 16%

44% zone

Sinker 9%

41% zone

Changeup 7%

26% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 2.2 WAR Pre-arb $780K*

2028 2.2 WAR Pre-arb $803K*

2029 2.1 WAR Arbitration $785K

2030 1.9 WAR Arbitration $2.8M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026AAA	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	27	7	34 IP	34 IP · 5.29 ERA · 30.8% K · 11.0% BB
2025AAA	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	26	25	123 IP	123 IP · 4.10 ERA · 21.5% K · 9.8% BB