TEX · SS

Ezequiel Duran

Age 27 B/T R/R 5′10″, 185 lb Dominican Republic MLB debut 2022

40-man

Texas’ roster as it stands starts at RF · 512 PA · 1.4 WAR in the role
Trade read Likely available: TEX projects to miss the playoffs (25% odds) and he has 2 years of control left: a natural trade candidate.

xwOBA .302 wOBA .335

2026 fWAR 4.4

Projected 2027 WAR 2.2 at 520 PA · 1.4 in his 2027 role

Hitting · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 598 PA

xwOBA .302

Swing decisions −0.26

Contact value −0.34

Bat speed 72.5

Squared-up / swing 19%

Blasts / swing 7%

EV90 104.2

Barrel % 6.0%

Chase % 35.5%

Zone contact 83.8%

Strikeout % 23.6%

Walk % 7.7%

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vs	PA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Chase	Decisions	Contact
LHP	164	.379	.338	22%	13%	30%	+0.30	+0.03
RHP	434	.318	.288	24%	6%	38%	−0.49	−0.49

Attack angle: 7.1° (44% in 5–20°)
Attack direction: +2.5°
Swing length: 7.2 ft
Fast-swing rate: 25%
Pull-air %: 13.6%
Hard-hit %: 39.1%
Slash · wRC+: .260/.321/.419 · 109

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

Does the most damage down and in (+5.9 vs. league per 100; 2.7 standard errors on 68 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest down over the middle (−2.4), but only 1.1 standard errors from average on 104 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average RHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 2,095 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Duran: bat path, contact quality and approach

Similarity	Player	xwOBA	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
73	Moisés Ballesteros LAA · ’03	.290	−0.7	0.1	Pre-arb
72	Patrick Bailey CLE · ’99	.309	1.0	1.8	Arb
71	Leody Taveras BAL · ’98	.280	0.4	0.2	Arb
65	Trea Turner PHI · ’93	.294	1.1	2.2	Signed $27.3M
62	Pedro Pagés STL · ’98	.277	0.5	0.9	Arb

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth

SS +8.2 +15.7

3B +9.3 +11.8

2B +7.6 +10.1

CF +8.0 +7.5

1B +17.0 +1.5

LF +11.9 +1.4

RF +11.9 +1.4

Outs Above Average by position

Season	Pos	OAA	Range	Arm, DP	Runs	Batters
2026	1B	0	0	+0.1	+0.1	85
2026	RF	0	0	0.0	0.0	304
2026	LF	0	0	0.0	0.0	401
2026	CF	0	0	0.0	0.0	417
2026	2B	+3	+2	0.0	+2.0	979
2026	3B	+2	+2	+0.1	+2.1	1,591
2026	SS	+11	+8	+0.1	+8.1	1,758
2025	LF	0	0	0.0	0.0	79
2025	RF	0	0	+0.1	+0.1	147
2025	3B	−1	0	+0.1	+0.1	293
2025	2B	−1	−1	+0.1	−0.9	369
2025	1B	+2	+2	+0.6	+2.6	584
2025	SS	+2	+2	+0.2	+2.2	604
2024	RF	−1	−1	0.0	−1.0	66
2024	2B	−2	−1	0.0	−1.0	98
2024	SS	+1	0	+0.1	+0.1	253
2024	1B	0	0	+1.2	+1.2	413
2024	LF	+1	0	+0.2	+0.2	585
2024	3B	+4	+3	+0.4	+3.4	979
2023	1B	0	0	+0.2	+0.2	43
2023	2B	0	0	0.0	0.0	78
2023	3B	−3	−2	−0.3	−2.3	777
2023	LF	−2	−1	−0.4	−1.4	989
2023	SS	+2	+2	−0.5	+1.5	1,295

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at SS)

2025 · SS2026 · SS In (charging) 0+4Back −2+1Toward 3B line +3+8Toward 1B line +1+4vs. RHH +1+11vs. LHH +2+6

Tools (percentile; arm among SSs)

Arm at SS 86.6 mph · 75th

Sprint speed 28.9 ft/s · 89th

Reaction +0.7 ft · 73rd

Burst −0.2 ft · 41st

Route +0.1 ft · 52nd

Catch difficulty (latest season)

Play	Made	Chances	Rate
★★★★★	0	5	0%
★★★★	1	2	50%
★★★	3	3	100%
★★	3	4	75%
★	5	5	100%

Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)

Season	Zone	Balls	Outs vs. exp.
2026	SS	175	+2.4
2026	LF	44	−2.3
2026	CF	57	−1.7
2026	3B	113	+1.6
2026	2B	106	+1.3
2025	SS	54	+2.4
2024	LF	54	+1.1
2024	3B	77	+1.6

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 2.2 WAR Arbitration $6.7M*

2028 2.0 WAR Arbitration $10.3M*

2029 1.7 WAR Free agent

2030 1.2 WAR Free agent

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2025AAA	AAA	Round Rock Express	26	14	59 PA	59 PA · .345/.390/.673 · 4 HR · 22.0% K · 6.8% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 50% 3/6 won · −0.5 runs