Players / Player profile
PIT · RF

Esmerlyn Valdez

Age 22 B/T R/R 6′2″, 234 lb Dominican Republic MLB debut 2026
Pittsburgh org 40-man FV 45 · #8 in org
  • Winter Plan starts at RF · 344 PA · 1.7 WAR in the role
  • Injured list 2026: Left hamstring strain (Sep 12–Sep 28)
  • PNC Park Pittsburgh’s home park: −3.7 runs per 600 PA against an average park (−0.22 wins over 344 PA; his WAR leaves this out); home runs ×0.79 (×0.77 for right-handed hitters as a group). Park Fit →
xwOBA .329 wOBA .368
2026 fWAR 1.4
Projected 2027 WAR 1.6 at 344 PA · 1.7 in his 2027 role

Development · trends & plan

Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.

Plan for 2027

  1. 1
    Health medical first Medical clearance before any development work

    Left hamstring strain (10-day IL, Sep 12–Sep 28, 2026); 0 games after it. Every other goal on this plan starts after the medical staff clears him.

    Health & Workload
  2. 2
    Contact high ask Make more contact on strikes

    Zone contact 67% (1st percentile), and his contact costs −0.23 runs per 100 swings. With no plan it tends to come back toward the median (about 71% next year); the target beats that.

    Zone contact: 67% target 73% no plan ≈ 71% ≈0.8 runs/season (what his contact costs a season vs. an average hitter at his 2027 plate appearances, on the Hitting Lab’s regressed value) Check at the end of the 2027 season · noise then ±2% Hitting Lab

Each goal is checked when his sample can tell the target from noise: the 2027 All-Star break if it can by then, else season’s end or the sample it needs; if no single season can, it’s a lean. Coach card

Trends · MLB

Bat speed 73.2 mph Sep ’26 · 28 PA May ’26 – Sep ’26
Chase rate 18% Sep ’26 · 28 PA May ’26 – Sep ’26
Zone contact 66% Sep ’26 · 28 PA May ’26 – Sep ’26
Exit velocity (avg) 93.0 mph Sep ’26 · 28 PA May ’26 – Sep ’26
xwOBA .302 Sep ’26 · 28 PA May ’26 – Sep ’26
Strikeout rate 39% Sep ’26 · 28 PA May ’26 – Sep ’26

Hitting · 2026

285 PA: percentiles need 300+, so values only

xwOBA .329 xwOBA: .329
Swing decisions +1.64 Swing decisions: +1.64
Contact value −0.23 Contact value: −0.23
Bat speed 74.8 Bat speed: 74.8
Squared-up / swing 17% Squared-up / swing: 17%
Blasts / swing 8% Blasts / swing: 8%
EV90 106.5 EV90: 106.5
Barrel % 20.0% Barrel %: 20.0%
Chase % 21.0% Chase %: 21.0%
Zone contact 67.2% Zone contact: 67.2%
Strikeout % 37.9% Strikeout %: 37.9%
Walk % 14.4% Walk %: 14.4%

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vsPAwOBAxwOBAK%BB%ChaseDecisionsContact
LHP111.428.37034%19%21%+1.60+0.31
RHP174.330.30440%11%21%+1.67−0.53
Attack angle
15.6° (53% in 5–20°)
Attack direction
+2.0°
Swing length
7.9 ft
Fast-swing rate
46%
Pull-air %
19.3%
Hard-hit %
48.9%
Slash · wRC+
.232/.345/.510 · 130

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

+0.8+0.5+1.6+0.4+0.4−0.3−0.9−0.6−1.0+0.4+0.5−1.9+0.5+3.0+3.6+2.2−0.9+0.5+0.2+1.0+1.5+1.1+1.2−0.9−0.7RHB

Does the most damage middle-away (+3.0 vs. league per 100; 1.3 standard errors on 69 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest middle-in (−1.9), but only 0.8 standard errors from average on 61 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average RHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,147 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Valdez: bat path, contact quality and approach

SimilarityPlayerxwOBA’26 WAR’27 proj2027
63Munetaka Murakami CWS · ’00.3512.92.2Signed $17.5M
26Nick Kurtz ATH · ’03.3742.63.3Pre-arb
20Aaron Judge NYY · ’92.3982.03.6Signed $40.0M
15Rhys Hoskins CLE · ’93.297−0.4−0.2Free agent
15Taylor Trammell HOU · ’97.2870.0−0.1Arb

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth
RF −1.6 −9.1
LF −3.9prior −14.4
1B −1.1prior −16.6
Outs Above Average by position
SeasonPosOAARangeArm, DPRunsBatters
2026LF00−0.4−0.4223
2026RF+2+2−3.9−1.92,201

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at RF)
2026 · RF In (charging) +1Back 0Toward 3B line −1Toward 1B line +3vs. RHH +1vs. LHH +1
Tools (percentile; arm among RFs)
Arm at RF 87.4 mph · 41st
Sprint speed 28.1 ft/s · 70th
Reaction +1.0 ft · 77th
Burst −0.3 ft · 38th
Route −0.1 ft · 39th
Catch difficulty (latest season)
PlayMadeChancesRate
★★★★★0120%
★★★★1250%
★★★8989%
★★7888%
★1212100%
Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)
SeasonZoneBallsOuts vs. exp.
2026RF204−1.8

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.6 WAR Pre-arb $780K*
2028 1.8 WAR Pre-arb $803K*
2029 2.0 WAR Pre-arb $828K*
2030 2.0 WAR Arbitration $3.8M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevelLevelTeamAgeGPA / IPPA / IP ·Line
2026AAAAAAIndianapolis Indians2256237 PA 237 PA · .255/.388/.526 · 13 HR · 21.5% K · 17.3% BB
2025A+A+Greensboro Grasshoppers2172314 PA 314 PA · .303/.385/.592 · 20 HR · 24.5% K · 9.9% BB
2025AAAAAltoona Curve2151215 PA 215 PA · .260/.363/.409 · 6 HR · 24.7% K · 11.6% BB

FanGraphs: FV 45 · ETA 2026. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks; where he has it, the development panel above shows it.

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 56% 9/16 won · +0.5 runs
Keystone is an independent portfolio project. It is not affiliated with Major League Baseball or any club. Data: MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs. Used under their terms for individual, non-commercial use.